NOAA predicts ‘above-normal’ hurricanes over Atlantic this year

This comes ahead of the onset of the La Nina conditions over the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is expected later this year.

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Multiple global weather models, including India's, have suggested cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures — indicating La Nina conditions — to emerge by August this year. (Representational image )

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned of above normal hurricane activity during June and November this year. “There is an 85 per cent chance of an above-normal hurricane season,” NOAA said Thursday.

This comes ahead of the onset of the La Nina conditions over the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is expected later this year. Multiple global weather models, including India’s, have suggested cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures — indicating La Nina conditions — to emerge by August this year.

Converse to La Nina is El Nino, wherein warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are recorded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino and La Nina and the warmer and cooler phases, respectively, of the naturally occuring El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which also has a neutral phase.

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“ENSO has a huge impact on hurricane activity over the Atlantic Ocean. Generally, El Nino reduces hurricane activity while La Nina tends to increase the activity over the Atlantic Ocean,” M Rajeevan, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, told The Indian Express. For instance during the 2021 La Nina, the Atlantic Ocean churned out a record 30 storms.

At present, El Nino conditions persist but these have been weakening since December last year. The current El Nino had commenced in June last year. Soon, ENSO neutral conditions are likely to emerge, the weather models have forecast.

On Thursday, NOAA has released the hurricane names for this season and some of these include Oscar, Rafael, Patty, Isaac, Helene, William among others.

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