Home matters,Cong card may turn the tide: Experts

“Freebies seem to have worked in the Indian electoral and political environment. The Congress offer of providing low-cost houses and popular response to it comes at a time when some development-induced displacement may have happened in rural and urban areas of the state. As it is a dream for a household in the low-income group to own a house,this offer is sure to dent poll prospects of other parties. This is a very interesting development,” says professor Priyavadan M Patel,a veteran psephologist based in Vadodara.

Patel cites the example of Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine,which promised to continue free power to farmers and the poor before the 2012 polls in which it was voted back to power. He says the Samajwadi Party in UP and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu,which offered a number of freebies,similarly came out trumps.

“In the last 10 years,Gujarat Congress has not been able to counter the ruling BJP’s development agenda. Nothing was moving the electorate of lower socio-economic strata (away from the BJP). However,the rush for homes witnessed in the last few days has been exceptional and looks like a masterstroke by the state Congress. It is time the state government becomes wary about anti-incumbency. Realistically seen,the task appears to be daunting as there is no time,” says Patel,who is also the head of the political science department at the Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda.

The Congress itself is surprised by the response. It had targeted to distribute 20 lakh applications but by Wednesday,35 lakh applicants were distributed.

Political experts also point out that the “development agenda” of the BJP in Gujarat is increasingly being viewed as elitist or those meant for the middle-class. The state government’s actions,for instance development of Sabarmati river front,have “hurt” the weaker sections of the society,they say.

Saraman Zala,head of political science department at Gujarat University,says,“Though the offer of freebies like low-cost homes are mere election gimmicks,the poor and downtrodden tend to get swayed by these promises. While there is no clarity on how the Congress will implement its promises in Gujarat,these schemes can mobilise people before elections.”

Zala feels the “Congress gimmick” has “forced the ruling party to think”.

Experts believe such pre-poll promises for freebies could affect the electoral results in a state like Gujarat where the difference of vote shares between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress stood around four per cent in 2007 Assembly polls.