A year that saw the mighty Sena split down the middle

As the year began, MVA government looked to be in a commanding position in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena’s decision following 2019 Assembly polls to forge alliance with the Congress and the NCP had resulted in the “isolation” of the BJP. And with Thackeray holding the remote control, former CM Devendra Fadnavis had to make do with the role of Opposition leader.

The MVA leaders had even proclaimed that their government would complete a full five-year term. The alliance also had the numbers to support its claim: Together, the Shiv Sena (56), the Congress (44) and the NCP (54) added 154 members to the assembly, way above the halfway mark of 144 out of 288. In addition, the alliance had the support of 15 smaller parties/independents.

But six months into 2022, Shinde, then cabinet minister in the MVA government, led the revolt which vertically split the Shiv Sena. Shinde first decanted with a dozen Sena MLAs to Surat. The grouping then moved to Guwahati. Within a few days, Shinde had the support of 40 Sena MLAs and 10 independents.

The “Operation Lotus” in Maharashtra was attributed to the BJP, with both central and state party leaders seen to be playing a proactive role in facilitating the split in the Sena, which eventually brought down the MVA government.

In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena’s split was the biggest political development in a long time as until it happened, none had dared to throw such an open challenge to the Thackerays. The downfall of MVA paved the formation of BJP-Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena. On June 30, Shinde was sworn in as CM and Fadnavis, his deputy.

If MVA downfall was a rude shock, BJP’s decision to “downsize” Fadnavis as deputy CM was also a bolt from the blue.

In a candid admission, Fadnavis recently said, “Initially, I did not want to be part of the government. As I had already led the BJP coalition as CM (2014-2019). And accepting any other position would have meant I was power hankering. But our party leadership insisted I should be in the government.”

The BJP’s model was a clear departure from set norms. Through “Operation Lotus”, it taught a lesson to its estranged alliance partner, the Shiv Sena. It showed that the party, under the big two – Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah – did not believe in forgiving too easily.

With Shiv Sena’s electoral strength in assembly reduced from 56 to 16, the party had to fight for its survival. In Lok Sabha too,its strength reduced from 19 MPs to seven.

With Shinde-Fadnavis government taking control of Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena not only lost power but also its prominence within Opposition. The NCP emerged stronger with Ajit Pawar becoming the Opposition leader.

The year also marked two other important developments. Prior to MVA downfall, Fadnavis, as the Opposition leader, led the BJP to victory in both Rajya Sabha and Maharashtra State Legislative Council elections. The BJP alone fought the collective MVA to achieve the feat on June 10 in Rajya Sabha polls, winning three Rajya Sabha seats, leaving one each for the Congress, the NCP and the Shiv Sena. The contest for sixth seat saw BJP’s Dhananjay Mhadik trumping Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Pawar. It was a major loss of face for Thackeray who was then the CM. On June 20, BJP surprised everybody by winning five seats out of ten even as the Shiv Sena and the NCP clinched two and the Congress one seat.

The Rajya Sabha and council polls where BJP fought against odds to muster additional numbers to get additional seats was seen as the master stroke of Fadnavis.

As for Shiv Sena, the decline that began in June 20 has steadily continued. In the recently concluded gram panchayat elections, the BJP emerged as the number one party making inroads in rural Maharashtra. While the NCP, the Congress and the Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena were relegated to second, third and fourth position respectively, Shiv Sena (UBT) had to contend with the last position.