Maharashtra Assembly elections: Counting to begin in an hour; a look at the likely scenarios

The deadline for the formation of the government after the results is November 26, failing which President’s rule can be imposed in the state.

The Indian Express takes a look at the possible scenarios and who can become the next chief minister in each case.

If Mahayuti gets majority

If the BJP, which is contesting 149 of the 288 Assembly seats in the state, wins around 100 seats, the Mahayuti government led by the BJP can be formed smoothly in the state before the November 26 deadline and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis will be the most likely candidate to take over as the next chief minister.

However, if the BJP fails to get around 100 seats and is stuck around the 80-seat mark and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, which is contesting on 82 sets, manages to win 40-45 seats and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, which is contesting on 59 seats, wins between 20 and 30 seats, the Mahayuti along with its smaller allies can form the government. But in that scenario, Shinde is likely to become the chief minister again.

However, the decision on who will become the chief minister from Mahayuti if the alliance wins a majority will be decided in Delhi.

This is based on the assumption that all the three key allies of Mahayuti stay together after the results.

If Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) gets majority?

If the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising the Sena (UBT), NCP (SP) and Congress gets a clear mandate by crossing the magic figure of 145 seats, Congress’ Nana Patole and Sena (UBT)’s Uddhav Thackeray will be in race to become the chief minister.

The CM face has been a bone of contention between the MVA partners over the past three months, with Thackeray demanding its alliance partners NCP (SP) and Congress to declare the CM face though the other two parties were reluctant to do so.

While Patole and Thackeray both will be vying for the CM position if the MVA wins, Sharad Pawar would play a major role in deciding the MVA’s CM face along with the Congress high command.

According to MVA leaders, the party that wins maximum seats is likely to get the CM post in the MVA.

Over the last two days, there has also been a war of words between Sena (UBT) and Congress leaders over claims on the CM post.

No clear majority to any of the two alliance

If none of the alliance, MVA or Mahayuti, manage to secure a clear majority, smaller parties like Prakash Ambedkar-led VBA, Raj Thackeray-led MNS, the third front led by Bachhu Kadu, Hitendra Thakur-led BVA and Independents would play a major role and both alliances would be approaching them to gain their support to form the government by making lucrative offers and a part in the government. It is learnt that both the MVA and Mahayuti have already started approaching Independents who are likely to secure victory.

In a repeat of the 2019 post Assembly poll results, a resort politics is likely to begin in such scenarios and both sides trying to poach the MLAs from the other side as the parties try to keep their MLAs secure at a safe location to ensure they don’t switch sides. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has already asked their MLAs to reach Mumbai on Saturday and hotel rooms have been booked by the party to keep their MLAs.

Political observers, however, feel in case of a hung verdict, where there is no majority to any of the alliance, there is a possibility of President’s rule in the state and the Maharashtra Governor would play a major role in the formation of the government over the next few weeks.