Regaining OBC trust should be BJP’s top priority before 2024 LS elections

On Tuesday, when ruling parties were celebrating the Maratha reservation decision in the Vidhan Bhavan, the Kunbi Ekikaran Samiti — a conglomeration of 52 outfits — took to the streets against the Shinde-led government.

Questioning the constitutional validity of the 10 per cent quota, they also objected to the earlier draft notification, which facilitates eligible Marathas to avail Kunbi certificates and seek reservation within the OBC category. The ambiguity over the draft notification has kept OBCs on tenterhooks, as they harbour fear of Marathas ultimately being included in the OBCs using the “backward class” tag.

The OBC Bahujan Mahasangh leader Prakash Shendge, who led the protest, said, “We are not against Marathas getting 10 per cent or more. But what remains unexplained is how the government can raise the reservation ceiling from the existing 52 per cent to 62 per cent. It is the Centre’s prerogative and the Parliament has to pass it.”

Kunbi Ekikaran Samiti leader Prakash Bhagirat said, “If state government takes OBCs for granted, we will show our might in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.”

Another factor that has not gone down well with the OBCs is the state government’s failure to roll back the draft notification, which allows eligible Marathas to seek Kunbi certificates along with “sage soyare” (blood relatives) under the OBC category.

On Tuesday, Shinde said in the Assembly, “The draft notification issued on January 26 was subject to objections and suggestions. We have received six lakh objections. After completing the process, the government will take a final decision.”

By keeping the draft notification open-ended, Shinde has given ample reason for OBCs to question the state government’s intentions. The OBC community reckons that through the draft notification, the government’s objective is to push 57 lakh Kunbi Marathas under OBC category. And if their blood relations are considered, the numbers will rise, shrinking the OBC quota.

The Rashtriya OBC Mahasangh president Babanrao Taywade said, “We welcome the decision to give 10 per cent separate quota to Marathas. Our concern is that the 27 per cent OBC quota should remain intact. We don’t want any dilution in it.”

With 52 per cent population, OBCs are a formidable force that can determine the political fate of any party in elections. As per the State Backward Class Commission Report, Marathas account for 28 per cent of the state’s population.

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said, “I want to reassure OBCs that their reservation will not be compromised at any cost. We have given Marathas a separate 10 per cent reservation.”

A similar sentiment was echoed by state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule, who said, “Maratha quota is separate, it has not affected OBC quota.”

To placate the OBC unrest, the BJP will have to establish how 10 per cent quota to Marathas will become a reality and make its stand clear on the draft notification for Kunbi Marathas and blood relatives.

The Lok Sabha and Assembly elections will be the litmus test on how Marathas versus OBC polarisation has worked in the state.

For the BJP, which is vying to maximise its electoral prospects by setting a target of 45/48 seats, Vidarbha and parts of North Maharashtra, which has Kunbis seeking OBC quota (since Mandal Commission 1992) will be crucial. The Kunbi community accounts for 45 to 50 per cent of the population in Vidarbha, which has 10 LS seats and 62 Assembly segments.

From April 6, 1980, since the evolution of BJP from Jana Sangh, the OBC community has been its strength. Infact, the right wing took a conscious decision to shed its upper caste tag to earn OBC good will.

In the late 1980s, right-wing ideologue Vasantrao Bhagwat embarked on a political experiment to give BJP its new identity of OBC. Through social engineering, he worked towards getting the backward communities of Mali, Dhangar and Vanjari to be the mainstay of BJP. The experiment, which was then popularly called Madhav ( Mali, Dhangar, Vanjari) yielded positive results, helping BJP gain a foothold amongst OBCs.

A BJP political manager said, “We know Marathas and OBCs are critical issues. We have to tackle it carefully. But both communities know that the BJP at the Centre and the state level can resolve all issues.” Beyond reservation politics, there is a larger concern on how the nation will vote. The single agenda will be “Vote for Modi, Vote for India”, he said.