Ajit Pawar vs Sharad Pawar: Key factors that are driving NCP MLAs while choosing sides

If 36 or more MLAs out of the NCP's 53 go with Ajit Pawar, they can be part of the ruling alliance without fear of disqualification. So what are the key factors that will seal the deal when push comes to shove?

Written by Atikh Rashid
Pune | July 6, 2023 09:04 AM IST

4 min read

This combination photo shows NCP leaders Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar. (Photos via their Facebook pages)

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The numbers war between NCP chief Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar has heated up after separate meetings called by both sides in Mumbai gave an edge to the junior Pawar with the open support of at least 29 MLAs.

But the key number to watch out for is 36. If 36 or more MLAs out of the NCP’s 53 go with Ajit Pawar, they can be part of the ruling alliance without fear of disqualification.

So what are the key factors that will seal the deal when push comes to shove?

Why Ajit Pawar?

Personal loyalty: Ajit Pawar has been in state politics for over four decades and developed close ties with a large number of local leaders. He has been a decision-maker in the NCP for a long time and held key positions in the Maharashtra government. In the districts of Western Maharashtra, he has developed almost a cult following of active supporters. This is most visible in the Pune district, the home turf of both leaders, where most MLAs appear to have sided with Ajit.

Benefits of power: Sworn in on Sunday as the Deputy Chief Minister with eight other MLAs as ministers, Ajit Pawar can use the power and benefits that come with the position to lure more support.

Fear of retribution: The junior Pawar is known in the state as a leader who nurses a grudge, going after those who have harmed him with all his might. It’s possible that the party MLAs will have the fear of irking Ajit Pawar by hurting him at this crucial juncture on the back of their mind when they make the decision.

Also read | As 16 show up, Sharad Pawar says let other side be happy, symbol does not decide fate

Age factor: Ajit Pawar, who will turn 64 later this month, is likely to remain active and influential in state politics for at least a decade, if not more, and this seems to be playing in his favour. NCP leaders with long-term political ambitions are seen to be siding with him rather than the senior Pawar.

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Why Sharad Pawar?

Legacy and loyalty: As a political leader, the Maratha stalwart enjoys loyalty and respect not only from politicians but also from the public over several decades. This factor will play a big role for some MLAs who have been in the electoral fray for a long time. This is a key factor that leaders close to Sharad Pawar are using to draw more MLAs to their camp.

Also read | ‘You are now 83, are you going to stop or not?… all MLAs with me’: Ajit Pawar to Sharad Pawar

2024 Assembly election tickets: With the Ajit Pawar faction joining the BJP-Sena alliance, some NCP MLAs in his camp from constituencies with strong BJP presence are unsure if they will get a ticket for the Maharashtra Assembly polls in 2024. This could prove to be a decisive factor closer to the elections, with some of them likely to return to the Sharad Pawar camp.

Aversion to BJP: There are many NCP MLAs, especially from urban constituencies and the Marathwada region, who are either ideologically opposed to the BJP or fear that they will lose the support of Muslim and Dalit voters if they join the NDA alliance.

Pawar power: The fear of Sharad Pawar personally campaigning against a candidate is a real fear for many. More so, after former Satara MP and descendent of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, Udayan Raje Bhosale, lost the Lok Sabha bypoll after switching over to the BJP. The embarrassing loss was attributed to Pawar’s rallies against the sitting MP. This time, the senior Pawar has already made it clear that he will campaign to ensure that those who deserted him will lose in the next polls.