The idea of “common sense” as the new guide to American governance under a potential second term of President Donald Trump was the dominant theme of the just concluded Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. What is “common sense” for ordinary people is but heresy for the US establishment. Under Trump, the Republican Party is making a big push towards overthrowing the traditional American consensus on a range of issues: free trade, alliances, open borders, and US support for post war global institutions built by Washington. Some of these changes — on trade and China, for example — were visible in Trump’s first term. A few have survived under the Biden administration. But this time, the impact of Trump’s agenda — endorsed by the GOP in full measure, and articulated with great vigour by J D Vance, his young running mate — will be sweeping and consequential. Unlike in his first term, when an inexperienced Trump had to constantly defer to the “adults in the room” (figures from the deep state or the establishment that were part of the administration), if he returns to the White House, he will be more confident about implementing his convictions this time around. The rest of the world, including India, must change its assumptions of the United States, and adapt to the unfolding transformations in the US engagement with the world. Five prospective transformations demand that the Indian foreign policy elite rethink its own “common sense” about the US. Trade & economic globalisation The Republican convention has unhesitatingly backed Trump’s anti-globalisation instincts. The GOP wants to stop outsourcing production to the rest of the world (at the cost of working people at home), and “make America a manufacturing superpower” again. The main instrument for this is the declared Trump plan for a big hike in tariffs on imports (10% for all imports, 60% for imports from China). In a recent interview to Bloomberg, Trump harped on his long standing desire to devalue the dollar to make imports costly and boost US exports. The world has long assumed the US is a bottomless sink for the world’s exports; that faith can’t be sustained under a second Trump term. Complaining about American protectionism, or talking about WTO rules, won’t cut much ice with Washington. Mouthing the WTO line, as our trade bureaucrats do, will be like reciting a mantra to ward off a powerful cyclone. Trade issues that were an important irritant in India’s engagement with Trump in the first term, will now be a serious challenge, addressing which will involve rethinking India’s own trade strategies. Security & alliances On security, India might be better placed than US allies in Europe and Asia that fear US abandonment. The Republicans are not seeking to isolate America from the world. They want greater reciprocity. On the face of it, as a non-ally, India is not part of that argument; but the military partnership with the US is very much central today to India’s defence calculus with an ever so assertive China on its frontiers. Although the India-US convergence is real, Delhi has thus far been hesitant in translating that into concrete military arrangements. The idea that Delhi can play all sides without making commitments to any one might be harder to pursue under Trump, who plans to shake down US great power relations. There is a nice fit between the American quest for willing and capable partners, and India’s desire to build its comprehensive national power, and play a larger role in reshaping Asian security. India has been slow to articulate a plan for greater burden sharing with the US in the last decade and more. This must now be an urgent priority for New Delhi. Democracy & interventionism The Republican focus on battling “woke ideology” at home is accompanied by an opposition to liberal internationalism, and all that it entailed — including the obsession with promotion of democracy and human rights, and a penchant for political interventionism around the world. This should make many of the traditional arguments between Indian governments and American liberal elites less significant in the a second Trump term Immigration & open borders Indian elites have been a major beneficiary of America’s open border policies since the 1960s. But immigration has become a toxic issue in US domestic politics, and the Republican platform talks about “sealing the border against migrant invasion” and “carrying out the largest deportation operation” in American history. India should be able to work with the Trump Administration on facilitating legal immigration so critical for US business, while curbing illegal migration. Climate & energy The Republicans are determined to bring down the Biden Administration’s expansive agenda of “green transition”. Trump is promising to make America an “energy superpower” through industrial policy. He plans to support a rapid expansion of hydrocarbon drilling. The Trump years saw India engage with America’s big oil companies. Delhi might be prudent to reconnect with them. For India, which is a major oil importer, Trump’s US could become a more important energy partner. India must step up interaction with different US domestic political constituencies amid the massive political realignment being engineered by Trump. Trump’s arguments on putting interests of the working class above those of capital, securing labour against massive immigration, reducing global commitments, and avoiding wars abroad, cut across the divide between Republicans and Democrats, and have diverse sources of political support. His focus on internal change is also inextricably linked to his plans for a fundamental restructuring of the international system. On both fronts, though, Trump is bound to face much political and institutional resistance from the old establishment. Following these internal battles, and their external consequences, must now be a central part of Delhi’s effort to intensify the engagement with the US, and create a “new common sense” in India about American domestic politics and international policies. (The writer is Contributing Editor on international affairs for The Indian Express)
