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(Written by Alistair Walsh; Edited by Tamsin Walker)
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are building some of the world’s largest renewable power plants as they wean themselves off fossil fuels. While such projects will help them meet their 2030 emissions targets, for now, however, they sit alongside other Gulf states — Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar — in the 15 worst emitters.
Transforming the economies to renewable energy isn’t purely out of concern for the environment, though. Mohammad Al-Saidi, a research associate professor at Qatar University’s Center for Sustainable Development, told DW that one of the main motivators for the transition is to free up fossil fuel reserves for export, thereby maximising profits.
In 2020, Saudi Arabia was the fourth largest consumer of oil in the world, and the sixth-largest consumer of fossil gas, leaving less to be lucratively sold abroad.
Despite rising temperatures and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events linked to burning fossil fuels, demand for oil is projected to increase until about 2040. Once demand eventually fades, any oil left in the ground will become a “stranded asset” and a missed opportunity for profit, as the oil producers see it.
Another significant motivator for the domestic shift toward renewable economies is to attract international investment, Al-Saidi explained. “This is very important for image, and image means money.”
Though continuing to export oil will fill the region’s coffers, it could also threaten its very existence. As other countries keep burning fossil fuels extracted from Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, global temperatures will continue to rise. And the Gulf stands to be disproportionately affected.
A global rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 would likely mean a 4 degree rise in the Gulf. Heat waves of over 50 degrees Celsius have already hit the region , and average temperatures are well above the rest of the world.
Average summer maximum temperatures will likely exceed survivability levels in most of the Gulf under some climate change scenarios. Planetary heating will also worsen dust storms, and low-lying areas could be affected by rising sea levels.
“They are in a paradox because they’re depending upon the oil revenues, but they’re also at great risk of climate change in their own countries,” said Jon Truby, a visiting law professor at the UK’s Newcastle University who studies connections between sustainability and technology.
In an effort to keep exporting fossil fuels, while limiting the risk of climate damage, the region is placing its bets on carbon capture and storage.
CCS, as the technology is known, is a process by which emissions are intercepted and squirreled underground or into other products. It has long been seen as the holy grail for oil producers because it could theoretically mean fossil fuels could be burned without adding to climate change.
But decades of research has failed to produce large-scale solutions, and climate activists see it as a dangerous distraction from true climate action.
So far, less than 0.1% (43 million tons) of global emissions are captured by such technology. The current pipeline of projects is estimated to increase that to just half a percent by 2030, according to Bloomberg.
Nonetheless, the technology is poised to be widely discussed in the annual UN climate summit to be held in the UAE and has been identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of the required steps to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. COP28 President-Designate Sultan al-Jaber called for a greater focus on carbon capture and storage capacity in a speech setting out his agenda for the talks.
However, the European Union and other nations have opposed this approach, saying the focus should be on phasing out fossil fuels rather than abatement technologies.
Eventually though, the money tap will be switched off. With the International Monetary Fund warning that reduced demand for oil might eat away the region’s coffers in just 15 years, moves are afoot to find alternative streams of revenue.
Saudi Arabia is betting on green hydrogen production, as well as building up an industry of renewable-powered commodities production such as aluminum along with the UAE. On a less sustainable front, it’s also starting to use its hydrocarbons for plastic and petrochemical production.
Exporting solar power has been touted as a huge economic opportunity. In the Gulf countries, each square meter of land fitted with solar could yield the same amount of energy each year as 1.1 barrels of oil.
Other states are looking to copy the diversification model of Dubai, where fossil fuels now account for only about 5% of its income. The vast majority comes instead from tourism, and wealthy migrants and investors, according to Al-Saidi.
Oman appears to be one of the most ambitious for reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Oil made up 39% of its GDP in 2017, but it plans to reduce this to 8.4% by 2040 with a focus on tourism, logistics and manufacturing.
This varying ambition across the region relies on the Gulf states exploiting their fossil fuel reserves to fund a transition to a future free of fossil fuels. The irony is not lost on environmentalists and human rights activists.
