Opinion Tariff tracker, April 29: A reality check for Trump, at home and abroad

Trump dismissed the poll. “The Polls from the Fake News are, like the News itself, FAKE! We are doing GREAT, better than ever before,” said Donald Trump in one of his latest Truth Social posts.

To be sure, the Ipsos poll also found that despite the fall in popularity, Trump still “beats the Democrats in Congress in terms of trust to handle the nation’s main problems”.

But that doesn’t mean the evidence of growing disapproval of his policies is not starting to stack up. And now it is not limited to the markets — be it the stock market or the bond market. His policies are shaping up the global economy and politics in ways that he did not intend.

Canada’s latest election is a good example. Trump’s persistent threats towards making Canada the 51st state of the US played a huge role in the political revival of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party.

As Canada went to polls on Monday, Trump yet again posted: “Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America.

No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free access with NO BORDER. ALL POSITIVES WITH NO NEGATIVES. IT WAS MEANT TO BE! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!

Carney has led the Canadian response by slogans like “Elbows up” and “Canada is not for sale” as well as a promise to reimagine Canada’s economic future that is not dependent on the US.

As things stand, Carney is expected to win the elections.

Across the Atlantic, Politico has reported, that: “Britain and the European Union are set to sign a formal declaration committing to “free and open trade” in defiance of Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.” This is a crucial development as it takes place even as both the UK and EU are engaged in trying to figure out ways to evade Trump’s tariffs.

A UK-EU trade deal would be a turnaround for the two economic regions after the fractures of Brexit in 2016 and is yet another way that Trump’s tariffs are re-shaping the global economy.