US-China Trade Relations: The US and China met for a second day of talks in Geneva on Sunday (May 11), for a trade deal the entire world is waiting for. However, the signals emerging from the two countries were confusing, with US President Donald Trump saying “a total reset” had been negotiated “in a friendly manner”, while the Chinese state news agency published an editorial against “unilateralism, protectionism and economic coercion.” This is in line with how the talks began — Trump had long been claiming that the US and China were talking, without giving specifics, while China had maintained there was no contact. So what has happened in the US-China trade talks so far? Those involved in the negotiations have not released statements. After the first day of talks on Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social, “A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland. Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner. We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!” However, he did not elaborate on what progress was made, in which direction. From China, no one in the government put out a statement, but its official news agency struck a far more sombre note. “If Washington is truly committed to resolving trade frictions through dialogue, it must first confront the harm its tariff-driven policies have inflicted not only on the global trading system, but also on its own economy and citizens. It must honor established international trade rules and adhere to principles of fairness and justice. Talks should never be a pretext for continued coercion or extortion, and China will firmly reject any proposal that compromises core principles or undermines the broader cause of global equity,” it said in an editorial. The talks are being led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. At present, the US has put a 145% tax on Chinese imports, while China has retaliated with 125%. China's President Xi Jinping will speak at the opening of the China-CELAC Forum in Beijing on May 13, and it will be interesting to see if he mentions the US talks. CELAC stands for the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. If the deal with the US does not go through, China will need to find other markets for its massive products stock, and these countries could prove important. Who needs the trade deal more, the US or China? The answer depends on the lens you use. High tariffs mean a country's exports become very expensive for the importer's consumers, and trade flags. The US has a trade deficit with China — Trump's major grouse — which means that China sells more things to the US than the other way round. In 2024, the trade deficit (difference between exports and imports) stood at $295.4 billion. Going by this, China will be at a greater disadvantage if Americans don't buy its products. However, there are factors to consider here. Apart from a humongous volume of finished products, China also sells a variety of raw materials to US industries. So, an effective stopping of Chinese imports will hit American manufacturing too. Secondly, a lot of products will become more expensive for a lot of Americans, impacting sentiment and potentially slowing down the economy. People in China will suffer too, but President Xi does not have to face an election in four years. Also, the Chinese seem to have prepared for this tariff situation. The AP quoted data from the think tank Atlantic Council to say that China had reduced its dependence on America’s market, by cutting the US share of its exports to 15% last year from more than 19% in 2018. This is not to say that China will not be hit. The US is a huge, well-paying market for its products, and if the tariffs stay at the current rates, it will have to look for new, wealthy buyers fast, which is not easy. The disruption of trade between the two giants will affect others too. The US has said it doesn't want Chinese products entering it from other countries, which will put smaller economies in a spot, apart from complicating the supply chain. Signal for other countries This is possibly why China has maintained that it opposes high tariffs on principle, and has appealed to the international community to stand up to Trump. The Xinhua edit said, “China has taken note that some economies are also engaged in negotiations with the United States. It must be emphasised that appeasement cannot secure peace, nor can compromise earn respect.” Many countries, including India, are engaged in trade deal talks with the US, and Trump has reportedly been asking other nations to reduce trade with China. Trump had earlier climbed down from his anti-China rhetoric, saying on Friday that 80% tariffs, down from 145 per cent, “seems right”. China so far seems unbending. As markets across the world open on Monday, they will be desperately seeking good news from Geneva.
