© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
Tags:
Journalism of Courage
int(3)
Canada Polls 2025 Explained: The voting for the Canadian general election was held on Monday (April 28), in a contest that looks much different now than it did just a few months ago.
Read live updates here
The main parties in the fray include the Conservatives, who are looking to unseat the Liberal Party after its two straight terms under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. After coming to power in 2015, Trudeau stepped down from his party and government posts earlier this year. This was due to record-low approval ratings and the tanking fortunes of his party.
Conservatives seemed to have an easy path to electoral victory — that is, until unprecedented events began unfolding in the neighbouring United States. Even before his electoral victory, Donald Trump was amplifying calls on social media for the US to annex Canada as the “51st” US state.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took over after Trudeau, said recently, “The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” adding, “Those aren’t just words. That’s what’s at risk.” How — and why — has the election turned? What exactly is the Trump factor here? We explain.
The political landscape
Canadian politics has been historically dominated by two parties: the Liberals and the Conservatives. In recent years, the smaller Bloc Québécois (BQ) and New Democratic Party (NDP) have sometimes played kingmaking roles.
THE CONSERVATIVES, also called the Tories, have been led by Pierre Poilievre, 45, since 2022. Poilievre has been an MP since 2004 and held secretarial and ministerial positions in the government of Stephen Harper (2006-15).
Poilievre has put small government and low taxes at the heart of his political message. To many Canadians struggling with a housing and affordability crisis, his promise of returning to “common sense politics” seemed a welcome alternative to Trudeau’s perceived “socialism”.
THE LIBERALS are no longer led by Trudeau. Carney, whom the Liberals elected to succeed him, is a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and is untested politically. But the 60-year-old has a reputation for being a steady, diplomatic hand — something that many voters believe Canada in its current situation needs desperately.
THE NDP, led by Canadian Sikh leader Jagmeet Singh, 46, supported Trudeau’s minority government between 2021 and 2024. Generally described as social democratic — it sits to the left of the Liberals on most issues — the NDP has consistently been the third or fourth largest party in the Canadian House of Commons.
According to the Poll Tracker published by CBC News, a division of Canada’s public broadcaster and the country’s largest news broadcaster, the difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives narrowed in the last few days before polling. Still, the Liberals polled around 42.8% compared to the Conservatives at 39.2%.
“Favoured by wide margins in key battlegrounds, the Liberals are very likely to win the most seats and have a good chance of securing a majority government. The Conservatives are on track to finish with their highest vote share since 2011 but it is unlikely to be enough as former supporters of the Bloc Québécois and New Democrats have flocked to the Liberals,” it said.
In the mostly French-speaking province of Quebec, polling averages showed Liberals holding a substantial lead. A recent BBC report also said, “In Quebec, the issue of independence from Canada has long simmered. But faced with US tariffs and President Donald Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st US state, many voters are now seeking unity.”
What is the Trump factor here?
Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, which gave the Liberals a boost. That they were able to sustain the momentum was courtesy of Trump. The Conservatives peaked at 44.8% on January 20, the day Trump was inaugurated, and have fallen thereafter.
Canada, one of the US’s closest allies, was among the first countries targeted by Trump’s tariffs. The US President also openly and repeatedly threatened Canada’s sovereignty, which upset and angered Canadians everywhere. Suddenly, “how to deal with Trump” became the most pressing issue in the country.
The extent to which the Liberals could leverage the anger against Trump was seen as a key determinant of the electoral outcome. Carney started with an advantage here — Poilievre had a particular (perceived) weakness on the issue of dealing with Trump. He has in the past borrowed liberally from Trump’s playbook — from ranting against Trudeau’s “wokeism” and Canada’s corporate establishment to using phrases like “Canada First”, seemingly inspired by Trump’s “America First”. Critics have described him as “Trump Lite”.
This was all well and good when he was facing the incumbent Trudeau, the poster boy of Canada’s liberal establishment, and when the political discourse focused on Canada’s domestic discontent. But Carney himself is a political outsider, and with foreign policy concerns at the core issue in the election, Poilievre’s posturing fell a bit flat.
Poilievre’s search for an effective idiom to take on both Trump and the Liberals was not particularly successful. For the Liberals, on the other hand, Trump’s provocations opened up a path to victory.
Carney also moved fast to break from his predecessor. He cancelled the carbon tax, a favourite target of Poilievre, reversed Trudeau-era changes to the capital gains tax, and promised better fiscal discipline.
This story is an edited and updated version of a longer explainer that was first published in March 2025.
