© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
Tags:
Journalism of Courage
A year after the Taliban returned to power in Kabul, The Indian Express travelled to Afghanistan to report on what has changed on the ground since the time they were last in power, what’s on their minds and that of the Afghan people, and where India and China stand in the country today — and for the foreseeable future.
The first time the Taliban took Kabul, in 1996, Afghanistan was in ruins, much of its infrastructure destroyed by a raging civil war over the previous years. Over the last two decades, foreign powers including India helped rebuild roads, dams, government offices, hospitals, rural infrastructure, the economy, and education. In 2021, the Taliban took over a readymade country. But administering a nation of 32 million requires capacity and finances. And the Taliban are short on both.
Many wealthy people, and those of the middle class with means and education, including civil servants, have fled the country, not wishing to be part of the Taliban regime.
The international community has not yet recognised the regime formally, and sanctions, including travel bans on many Taliban, remain in place. Their access to international banking and finances are limited.
Still, the Taliban are striving to present the semblance of a functioning system. The regime’s two top priorities are getting a grip on the economy and on security, say those who are familiar with its internal working.
ECONOMY: In May, the Taliban presented an annual budget based entirely on domestic revenue. It projected an expenditure of 231.4 bn Afghani ($2.6 bn), and a revenue of 186.7 bn Afghani ($2.1 bn). No details were given about spending, or how the gap with revenue would be bridged.
“We have created a budget that is solely reliant on the revenues generated by the Afghan government. There is no foreign aspect to our budget,” foreign ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi told The Indian Express in Kabul earlier this month.
Afghanistan is the heart of Asia, Balkhi said, and countries in the region that want to trade with each other have to go through Afghanistan. Most of Afghanistan’s revenues are now being raised through customs duties. It is also exporting coal to Pakistan, he said.
“Our exports to all countries, including India, have doubled,” Balkhi said. The regime is also leasing out small mines to local investors, which, the spokesman said, was generating jobs and helping the economy.
The regime has been paying employees, though salaries have been slashed. Municipal workers sweep the streets of Kabul every morning, sanitation workers clean out drains, the gardens department maintains the parks. Banks are functioning, except for international transfers. Schools and hospitals are open.
The UN’s humanitarian response has helped Afghanistan keep its head above water. Until the Taliban banned high school education for girls, the UN was paying teachers’ salaries. It was also ensuring that community doctors and other health workers were paid. The ICRC is financing the Indira Gandhi Children’s Hospital in Kabul. In the absence of international banking facilities, UN planes have flown in $1bn in hard cash, including to fund money transfers to the needy through partner agencies, which has helped to increase the circulation of money in the economy. Some INGOs are even using hawala, euphemistically calling the middlemen “money transfer agents”.
SECURITY: The regime claims to have restored peace, but it remains nervous about the Daesh or ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan province), which has carried out attacks in Kabul with frightening regularity. According to the UN, from mid-August 2021 to mid-June 2022, 2,106 people were killed or wounded — 700 were killed — in violence attributed to or claimed by ISKP.
The killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a Kabul neighbourhood by the US has added to the Taliban’s insecurity, and most top leaders of the regime immediately left Kabul for Kandahar — where supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada is based — in confusion and panic. Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, at whose house al-Zawahiri was reported to be staying, retreated to Khost, a Haqqani stronghold.
At a government function to mark the “liberation of Kabul” on August 15, the attendance of VIPs from the “caretaker government” was thin, with only Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Salam Hanafi, Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, and Defence Minister Mullah Yaqub present.
There hasn’t been much change in the Taliban’s attitude towards civil society from the time they last ruled in Kabul. But unlike 20 years ago, outright brutalities, including public executions, have not been reported yet. A dress code has been prescribed for both men and women, but it is not strictly implemented.
The most draconian anti-people action by the Taliban so far has been to ban the education of girls beyond class 6 in school, and to make it difficult for women to work. In early August, a protest by women demanding “Education, Employment and Bread”, was dispersed by guards who fired in the air.
Although the Taliban declared an amnesty after the departure of foreign forces, the UN has reported 160 extrajudicial killings, 178 arbitrary detentions, 23 instances of incommunicado detentions, and 56 instances of torture and ill-treatment of former government and military officials. Those of the previous regime who remain in the country live in hiding for fear of being tracked down and killed.
The regime has scrapped the constitution promulgated by the previous Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. But with nothing yet to replace it, no one is sure what the laws are. The minority communities that the Taliban have targeted, such as the Hazaras and Tajiks, feel more vulnerable than the majority Pashtun.
In Kabul, which has witnessed repeated changes of rulers, there is expectation that this regime will not last either. Reports of factionalism, and the reported dissonance between the Haqqanis and the Kandahar core of the Taliban have fuelled speculation about the possibility of a breakdown and another cycle of civil war. The killing of Al-Zawahiri has led to fears about the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan, and the consequences. But those dealing with the regime say that whatever the differences within, the Taliban are determined not to fail this time.
Afghanistan is possibly the only country in South Asia where people spontaneously declare, hand on heart, that they “love” India. But they ask: when will India begin giving visas to Afghans? They are hurt that India shut its doors on them last year when they most needed its help. But they hope the policy will change.
The reopening of the Indian Embassy in June has given that hope legs, even though there is no indication from New Delhi yet that it is going to restart consular work, despite repeated declarations that India’s approach to Afghanistan is dictated by the people-to-people links between the countries, and a desire to assist Afghans in a dire humanitarian situation. India has been sending food aid and medicines to the country since December 2021.
India sees Afghanistan as vital for its strategic interests in the region, including access to Central Asia, and ensuring that Pakistan is not able to relocate India-focussed terror groups to Afghanistan. From 2018 it found itself left out of regional discussions about the country as the Trump Administration and Taliban, brought to the table by Pakistan, finalised the US exit, and President Joe Biden took the plan to completion last August. The Taliban’s proximity to Pakistan ensured that despite advice from its own diplomats, New Delhi was diffident about reaching out to the group. It shut the embassy in Kabul on August 17, two days after the takeover.
Within months, as Pakistan and China assumed leadership on discussions about how to engage with the Taliban, India was the only country in the region with no presence in Afghanistan. After months of unofficial contacts, and a couple of official meetings, the Indian Embassy reopened on June 23.
The Taliban have welcomed India’s return, and have also expressed the hope that the embassy, which is now headed by a mid-ranking IFS officer, would be upgraded to ambassadorial level soon. Balkhi told The Indian Express that the Taliban want India to complete the infra projects that it had left unfinished in the country.
From 2002 to 2021, India spent $4 bn in development assistance in Afghanistan, building high-visibility projects such as highways, hospitals, the parliament building, rural schools, and electricity transmission lines. These projects have created a vast and deep pool of goodwill for India of the kind that no other country can claim. One of the projects that was left incomplete was the Shahtoot Dam, to provide drinking water to 2 mn residents of Kabul.
What role India can play going forward may depend on how much leverage Pakistan has with the Taliban. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the most powerful member of the government, is close to the ISI. The Taliban seem eager to retain some agency vis-à-vis Pakistan. One indication is the Afghan safe haven for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group that has carried out deadly attacks against Pakistani military and civilian targets since its formation in 2007. In Kabul, word is that the Taliban want to retain the TTP card — in case they feel big-footed by Pakistan.
Beijing’s primary concern is to ensure that Afghanistan does not become a launching pad for Uighur radicals in Xinjiang. To this end, it engaged discreetly with the Taliban for years.
A delegation led by Mullah Baradar, the chief Taliban negotiator in Doha, visited Beijing within weeks of the takeover, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Kabul between stops in Islamabad and New Delhi. With the US out, and Russia, the other big player that was rooting for the Taliban preoccupied in Ukraine, China has been expanding its engagement with the regime.
Newsletter | Click to get the day’s best explainers in your inbox
Balkhi told The Indian Express the two sides are finalising mining operations in Aynak Logar, Afghanistan’s largest copper reserve, for which China signed an agreement back in 2008. “The Chinese company has sent a new team for the practical work to begin,” he said, adding that Beijing was also involved in other “mega projects” including gas and oil exploration, and building a power station. According to estimates made by the previous Afghan government, the country’s mineral reserves are worth $3 tn.
At Kabul airport, a huge hoarding for “ChinaTown”, advertises services for Chinese businesses prospecting in Afghanistan. Located in an apartment complex of the same name, it has an Afghan and a Chinese promoter, with the ground floor stocked with China-made goods — from an electric three-wheeler and scooters to rubber footwear. A Global Times report in April said five Chinese companies operate in Afghanistan.
The promoters said that depending on demand, the goods will be either imported or manufactured at an upcoming 650-acre China-Afghanistan industrial park at Pul-e-Charkhi outside Kabul. During Wang Yi’s visit, the two sides also discussed Afghanistan joining the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, even though the ambitious project, part of the Belt and Road Initiative, has been mired in financial and security difficulties.
Beginning today, a weekly Explained on India’s policy & place in the region — and in a rapidly changing world
