Fallout of Trump-Zelenskyy showdown: Where the major players stand

Half a day has passed since then. Foreign policy establishments around the world have had some time to process what this means; some countries have even reacted publicly.

Here’s an overview of how different countries might be processing the events of last night. Spoiler alert: at least one country is thrilled about what has happened.

1. 01

   Ukraine, Zelenskyy are big losers

   Ukraine comes out of this incident as the biggest loser. Not only was its leader humiliated on live television, Zelenskyy also failed to finalise the so-called “minerals deal” — an agreement which would give the US access to mineral reserves in Ukraine.

   Trump’s allies were critical of Zelenskyy. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said: “I don’t know if we can ever do business with Zelenskyy again.” Some even saw the bust-up as justification for turning off all American aid to Kyiv. “Not another penny,” Republican Senator Roger Marshall posted on X.

   Also Read | Zelenskyy and Trump meeting: When the bully wins

   The US has been Ukraine’s most important ally in the war. Many believe that Ukraine will not be able to fight without continued American support. Although this support has not yet been stopped, it is unclear how much longer it will last. Put simply, the US has all the leverage in the situation.

   Donald Trump is set to be in power for the next four years. Good or bad, he is the president Kyiv has to engage with. And less than a month into his presidency, ties seem to already be irreparably frayed.

   Zelenskyy of course put up a brave face, and a more conciliatory tone than the Trump camp. He thanked America, its people, Congress and the President on X. But experts say that he might not politically recover from the bust-up on Friday.

2. 02

   Europe is nervous

   That Europe is nervous about what just happened may be an understatement. After all, what is stopping Trump from behaving like this with any other ally? That he is unpredictable has long been known. This is nonetheless a new low.

   Over the past few weeks, a rift has emerged between Europe and the US on Trump’s Ukraine policy. There is an overwhelming sense in Europe that the US cannot be counted upon anymore. The Trump-Zelenskyy bust-up all but confirms Europe’s fears. As European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on X: “Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader.”

   Following the incident, European leaders rallied to defend Zelenskyy. Some, like France President Emmanuel Macron, even hit back at Trump. “If someone is playing World War III, his name is Vladimir Putin,” he said. (Trump had accused Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War III”).

   However, if the US were to pull out support for Ukraine, it is unclear how Europe on its own will be able to sustain Ukraine’s war efforts. Even if there is the will to do so — there likely isn’t — Europe may not have the capability to prop Ukraine up in the long term. The US has thus far provided the lion’s share of military support to Ukraine (it has committed $65.9 billion in military assistance alone since war began), and been the undisputed leader in NATO’s efforts to support Ukraine against Russia.

3. 03

   Moscow is thrilled

   As Ukraine and Europe scramble to figure out what next, Moscow is seemingly thrilled at the latest developments. Trump’s hardline stance makes it much harder for Ukraine to continue the war, while simultaneously driving a fissure through NATO, the US-led military alliance that has long been Russia’s largest security threat.

   Also Read | As US position on Ukraine-NATO shifts, a recall — and why it matters

   For Russia, a weaker Ukraine and a disunited West is probably the best-case outcome it can hope for from the war, now in its third year. And Trump’s actions alone will likely ensure this.

   Following the incident, top Kremlin figures could be seen gloating on social media.

   “The insolent pig [Zelenskyy] finally got a proper slap down in the Oval Office,” Former Russia President Dmitry Medvedev, now the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, posted on Telegram.

   Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said it was a miracle that Trump and Vance restrained themselves from laying hands on Zelenskyy during the argument. “Zelenskyy is biting the hand that fed him,” she said in a live broadcast on Telegram.

   Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov told Reuters that the Oval Office clash was likely to accelerate the end of Zelenskyy’s political career, something some Moscow has long been keen on. Zelenskyy has been steadfast against pursuing a diplomatic solution to end the war which would allow Russia to keep any Ukrainian territory it has control over at the moment. The Kremlin thus believes that it will be easier to strike a peace deal with another president.

4. 04

   China is quietly happy

   While Beijing has not publicly reacted to Friday’s events, Beijing will likely be quietly happy about what has transpired.

   Since the Trump presidency began, US allies have grown increasingly uncomfortable with his foreign policy positions, and seeming push towards further isolation. With American reliability in doubt, some countries may look to China as an alternative partner.

   “The loss of trust in America creates a vacuum… China is the real winner here,” James Bindenagel, a former US diplomat and professor emeritus at the University of Bonn, told NBC.

   In recent weeks, the Trump administration’s aggressive dismantling of USAID, the agency overseeing foreign aid, has already pushed some partners to China, NBC reported.

   There is also another silver lining for Beijing in Friday’s events. That the minerals deal between the US and Ukraine fell through is welcome news for China. For the Trump-led US, China is the great adversary out there. The minerals deal was meant to be a way to reduce American (and global) dependence on China for rare earth minerals.

5. 05

   View from New Delhi

   New Delhi will be looking to proceed on the matter with caution.

   But first, South Block will probably be heaving a sigh of relief that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s interactions with Trump during the former’s visit to the White House last month went without a hitch. Issues were discussed respectfully, and both sides came out happy at the end of it.

   With regards to Friday’s events, however, it is unlikely that New Delhi will explicate an official position. As The Indian Express diplomatic editor Shubhajit Roy wrote, “New Delhi has walked the tightrope all along, and it will continue to stay away from taking sides”.

   Also Read | Trump-Zelenskyy showdown: Takeaways from the most undiplomatic of White House exchanges

   Earlier on Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed “support for a just and lasting peace... based on respect for international law, principles of the UN charter and territorial integrity and sovereignty”.