What far right Islamophobe Geert Wilders’ surprise election success means for the Netherlands — and the rest of Europe

The result has sent shockwaves across Europe, which has seen a rise of far right populists in recent years. Wilders’ anti-immigrantion, anti-Islam, and anti-European Union message once found itself on the fringes of European politics. Not anymore.

❤️ 37 ZETELS ❤️ pic.twitter.com/kzD6PiiCkQ

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) November 23, 2023

We take a look at Wilders, and what his success means for the Netherlands, and for Europe at large.

But first, who is Geert Wilders?

Wilders, 60, is a career politician who has been in the Dutch parliament since 1998. He started off with the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the centre-right party currently in power, but left in 2004 after disagreeing with its position on Turkey’s accession to the EU. He founded PVV in 2006, and has been its leader since then, sitting both in the government and the opposition coalitions.

Wilders is notorious for his anti-immigration views, specifically targeting immigrants from Muslim countries. From calling Moroccans “scum” to holding competitions for cartoons of the Prophet, he has built a career from his self-appointed mission to stop an “Islamic invasion” of the West.

He has likened the Quran to Hitler’s Mein Kampf and called for a ban on it. Notably, he has publicly held such views since he joined politics, after travelling through much of the Middle East, and working for a while in Israel.

From 1990 to 1998, he was a parliamentary assistant to Frits Bolkestein, the first Dutch politician to raise the issue of mass immigration into the Netherlands, and a notorious Islamophobe himself. Dutch political analyst Anno Bunnik has described Wilders as a “sorcerer’s apprentice” to Bolkestein.

What was Wilders’ campaign like?

The elections in the Netherlands were called after the government of Mark Rutte, incumbent of 13 years, collapsed in July over disagreements on how to restrict entry of asylum-seekers. Consequently, most hopefuls, Wilders included, centred their campaign around this issue.

Wilders has called for a halt to accepting asylum-seekers, and advocated pushing back migrants at the border. After the outcome of the election became clear, Wilders said that he would be on a mission to end the “asylum tsunami”. “The Dutch will be No. 1 again,” he said, adding that “the people must get their nation back.”

He has been particularly critical of the EU in this regard, and has called for a Brexit-like referendum in the Netherlands, to decide whether to stay on in the Union.

In recent weeks, however, Wilders has sought to soften his tone somewhat on the “de-Islamisation” of the Netherlands.

“Opposition to Islam will never leave our DNA, but the priority is now on other matters,” he said last week while speaking on cost-of-living issues, healthcare and security. In one of the final election debates, he said that he was prepared to put his views on Islam “in the freezer” to govern.

When is the new Dutch government likely to be in place?

The softening of Wilders’ anti-Islam rhetoric is probably a response to the need to find coalition partners to form the government. While the party that wins the most seats takes the lead in negotiations and usually provides the prime minister, this is not guaranteed under the Dutch system.

Wilders’ party needs the support of 76 MPs for a majority, and Frans Timmermans, the prime ministerial candidate on the Labour-Green Party alliance that has come second in the polls with 25 seats, has ruled out working with him. So has Dilan Yesilgoz of the VVD, which has won 24 seats. “Every day it’s a mystery which Geert Wilders you’ll encounter,” she said on Monday.

The other party with a sizable number of seats is Pieter Omtzigt’s New Social Contract. Omtzigt, a former centrist Christian Democrat who built his party in just three months, has won 20 seats, and has said he would always be open to talks. Wilders would reach 57 seats in parliament with Omtzigt’s support, but would still need smaller parties to back him for a majority.

Regardless of how the coalition talks pan out, Rutte is likely to remain as caretaker PM well into 2024.

What do the results of the Dutch elections mean for Europe?

The result is the latest in a series of elections that are altering the European political landscape. From Slovakia to Spain and Germany to Poland, populist and hard-right parties have triumphed in some measure in elections.

The winds of change are here! Congratulations to @geertwilderspvv on winning the Dutch elections! pic.twitter.com/yh9LVcuP5J

— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) November 22, 2023

Netherlands is historically seen as a bellwether to Europe, and far right figures across the continent have been celebrating Wilders’ victory. Among the first to congratulate him was Hungary’s far right Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who announced that “The winds of change are here!”

French far right leader Marine Le Pen said Wilders’ election performance showed that “more and more countries at the heart of the EU are contesting the way it works…and want us to master immigration, which is seen by many European peoples as massive and totally anarchic today.”

She said Wilders’ positions on Europe raised the question of what Europe has become: “an obese, technocratic structure that moves forward by sanctions and threats.”