How former Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s PTI party is disintegrating

The exodus of prominent party members has only added to the troubles of the former prime minister as several other PTI leaders, who have firmly stood next to him, are languishing in jail, including the party’s Vice Chairman and former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. Moreover, thousands of PTI workers have been detained by the authorities for their alleged role in the violent protests that broke out on May 9 and 10, after the PTI chief was arrested in the Al-Qadir Trust case — he was later released on bail.

To make matters even worse, the current ruling dispensation, led by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), is planning to ban PTI for “promoting extremism and violence”. Imran, however, remains unfazed. Speaking to the BBC recently, the former prime minister said, “You think it is a big crisis for me, I don’t.”

Why is PTI witnessing a mass exodus of leaders?

According to the media reports, public announcements of the PTI leaders, who have quit the party, have largely followed a similar line: The party leader would call for a press conference, most after being freed from prison. They would then condemn the violence and then express their love and dedication towards Pakistan. In the end, they would declare that they were leaving PTI, adding they were either taking a break or opting to retire from active politics.

Although these leaders have insisted that they didn’t take the decision to quit under any external duress, many analysts believe they have resigned due to the pressure imposed by the country’s all-powerful army. Avinash Paliwal, an associate professor in international relations at SOAS University of London, told The Guardian: “This dramatic crackdown is a clear strategy by the military to break down all the support structures that (Imran) Khan has…Once those structures are gone, Khan is next in line.”

Imran too has claimed that his party members are being forced to leave “at gunpoint”. He, however, didn’t blame anyone for the alleged coercion.

The former prime minister and the army had a falling out last year — Imran was removed from power in April 2022 after a no-confidence vote in parliament. Since then, he has been leading a campaign against the military while demanding snap elections. Imran has also accused the army of trying to assassinate him and of being behind his arrest in May.

This is far from the first time that Pakistan’s military establishment has tried to root out a civilian political outlet. Time after time, prominent leaders and popular prime ministers have faced the heat from the army, once their relationship turned sour. For instance, in 2017, then prime minister Nawaz Sharif was ousted from power and jailed for corruption when he locked horns with the army.

The seemingly dismantling of Imran’s party by the military has been backed and facilitated by the ruling coalition of political parties, known as Pakistan Democratic Movement — they recently announced to try people, who are accused of attacking military installations, under the country’s army law. The primary reason for their unwavering support to the army is that they fear an election loss at Imran’s hands.

The former PM is currently facing more than hundreds of cases, including that of corruption and sedition. On May 9, he was arrested by the paramilitary forces from the Islamabad High Court in the Al-Qadir Trust case. This led to widespread violence across the country with PTI workers allegedly attacking military installations, including the Lahore Corps Commanders House and the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. The army later called May 9 a “Black Day”.

If you want to read more about the Al-Qadir Trust case, click here.

But not everyone agrees that Imran’s supporters have deserted him because of the military and the ruling government. Some analysts say the large scale of defection showcases the fact that the PTI chief failed to “build any institutions within the party and relied solely on his own populist appeal to keep it together.,” as per The Guardian report. Others point out that the defectors are opportunists who make decisions based on prospects of grabbing power and not ideological leanings.

What happens now?

Despite the slew of defections from his party, the former PM has remained adamant and feels confident about winning elections. He said no matter how many people leave, anyone who gets PTI’s ticket would win elections.

Observers, however, see a bleak chance of Imran returning as the top leader of Pakistan. With most of his aides leaving the party or being jailed, the PTI chief seems to have been isolated as his support slowly withers away. The Guardian, citing a source within the party, reported that “several of those who resigned were now in discussion for a plan to rebuild PTI ‘minus Khan’ as a way to ‘save the party’”.