Opinion Explained: What’s happening in the latest Iran-Israel flare-up, in 5 points

We explain what has happened.

1. What was the context for these attacks?

Going back in history, Israel and Iran have had no diplomatic relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which led to a theocratic government in Iran under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini. It’s important to note that before 1979, not only did the two countries have ties, but Iran was the second Muslim country to recognise Israel after its formation in 1948.

However, the Islamist regime in Iran, which has since endured, viewed Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land. Khomeini termed Israel “Little Satan” and its closest ally, the United States, as “Great Satan” for what was seen as unnecessary Western interference in the Middle East.

Over the years, the ties devolved with little trust on either side. Iran’s support for Hamas and other Iran-backed regional actors, such as Hezbollah, especially after October 7, 2023, has drawn Israel’s ire.

Crucially, the great strategic concern in Israel is Iran possessing nuclear weapons, and to that end, it has previously launched attacks on scientists (although more targeted and tactical ones). Iran says it is not looking to develop weapons, and has simply invested in nuclear power over the decades.

However, the process of enriching uranium for use in power plants can be furthered for making a nuclear bomb as well. Enrichment is how uranium-235, used for producing nuclear weapons, is extracted from the naturally occurring uranium-238 variety. Highly enriched uranium has previously been found at an Iranian plant in Natanz.

Friday’s attacks came one day after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors censured Iran for the first time in 20 years for not working with its inspectors. It happened amid talks between the US and Iran for the removal of economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for reducing or ending uranium enrichment. The sixth round of nuclear negotiations was scheduled for Sunday in Muscat, but Oman announced they were scrapped.

2. What kind of damage has been inflicted?

Some major targets include the Natanz enrichment facility, around 220 kilometres southeast of Tehran, which is Iran’s main enrichment site. It sustained some damage, but there was no nuclear radiation or contamination. There is also the Fordo facility, the Bushehr nuclear power plant that is the only commercial n-power plant in Iran, and the Arak heavy water reactor.

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On Saturday, the scope of the attacks was expanded to include a refinery in Kangan. It is part of the world’s largest gas field, the South Pars, owned by Iran and Qatar. The attacks resulted in a fire, temporarily pausing operations.

Attacks have continued over the weekend, with the toll in Iran climbing up to 78 deaths and more than 300 injuries. Key military officers have been killed, including General Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

3. How has Iran responded?

On Friday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement that Israel initiated a war and said it will not be allowed to do “hit and run”. “The Zionist regime (Israel) will not remain unscathed from the consequences of its crime. The Iranian nation must be guaranteed that our response will not be half-measured,” he said.

At least 100 drones were fired at Israel on Friday, but the Israeli Iron Dome defence system intercepted a majority of them. Ballistic missiles were launched towards Israel on Saturday night and on Sunday, resulting in 13 deaths and at least 34 injuries.

Israel claimed to have gained control of the skies over the Iranian capital and warned that “Tehran will burn” if more missiles are fired, The Guardian reported on Saturday. However, Iran has nonetheless threatened a “more severe and powerful response”. It has also warned Western nations from extending support to Israel, and that it could target their infrastructure and military bases in the region.

4. How has the world reacted?

US President Donald Trump said the country had no role in the attack, but Iran should accept a nuclear deal. He added that Israel possessed US-manufactured “lethal” weaponry and that “Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!”

Saudi Arabia expressed “strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggressions against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine its sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms.”

Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal on Friday urged both Israel and Iran “to avoid any escalatory steps,” saying India has “close and friendly” relations with the two nations. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar received a call from the Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister and also spoke to his Iranian counterpart. Netanyahu also called Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who “emphasized the need for early restoration of peace and stability in the region,” according to a post on his X account.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said they were moving assets to the region, including jets, “for contingency support”.

The Chinese embassy in Israel said the Israeli strikes were “significantly escalating the tensions.” A Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson called on all parties to avoid further escalation of tensions. “China opposes any infringement on Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, and opposes actions that escalate tensions and expand the conflict”, the spokesperson said. China also offered to “play a constructive role” in de-escalating the situation.

5. What happens next?

In the short run, oil prices are likely to rise, and shipping in the Red Sea may be impacted. However, it is unclear to what level the conflict will escalate or not, given that the Israeli attacks stemmed from broader issues – Iran’s nuclear program and Netanyahu addressing Iranians for regime change.

On paper, when it comes to a comparison of the countries’ military capabilities, Israel also has more advanced, US-backed technology, and has been more successful in inflicting damage in recent conflicts. A previous exchange of fire happened in April 2024 – the first time the countries engaged in direct confrontation. Iran launched strikes after Israel attacked its consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing senior military leaders. Then, too, Iranian attacks only resulted in limited damage.

The Iranian government is also facing multiple problems at home, including economic downturn due to sanctions, domestic discontent, and now, its senior military leadership being eliminated.

However, with the long history of their animosity, it would be difficult for either country to de-escalate without showing some gains from the strikes. Israel has undoubtedly faced criticism internationally, given its war in Gaza, but Iran’s options are even more limited. Only China, Russia, and Burkina Faso opposed the IAEA resolution against it, and many in the Middle East are also worried about a nuclear-armed Iran.