Nawrocki’s victory signals a PiS resurgence and will put the Eurosceptic president at odds with the pro-Europe government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk of the centrist Civic Platform.

For the past 18 months, Tusk’s government has sought to reverse judicial reforms instituted by the previous PiS government but has faced resistance from outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally. In anticipation of the trend, Tusk announced on Monday that a confidence vote in his government will be held on June 11 to boost support for his coalition government.

Who is Karol Nawrocki?

A populist at heart, Nawrocki, a relatively unknown face before the elections, was positioned as a “people’s candidate” by the PiS. The party announced him as an “independent candidate” to distance him from the allegations of corruption and breach of law that led to the end of PiS’s eight-year rule in 2023.

He maintains a tough-guy image, admitting to taking part in a pre-arranged brawl between football teams. He has posted pictures of himself in the gym, firing a gun and riding a tractor. He also emphasises his family and Christian values. His wife, Marta Nawrocka, and their children, Daniel, Antoni and Katarzyna, featured heavily in his campaign.

Born in the port city of Gdansk, Nawrocki comes from humble beginnings. He holds a PhD in humanities and currently heads the Institute of National Remembrance, a government agency that researches modern Polish history and investigates crimes under the Nazi occupation and the Communist period.

Ties to Trump and ‘Poland First’ agenda

Nawrocki’s campaign gained a major boost from his close association with Donald Trump. Notably, Poland and the US are close allies, with 10,000 US troops stationed in Poland. However, Prime Minister Tusk has long maintained an animosity towards Trump.

Both Nawrocki and Trump have publicly praised each other, and in May, Nawrocki visited the Oval Office for a photo-op with Trump during his campaign. When Nawrocki won the elections, Trump posted on his social media platform: “TRUMP ALLY WINS IN POLAND, SHOCKING ALL IN EUROPE. NewsMax. Congratulations Poland, you picked a WINNER!” Thanking the President, Nawrocki said, “Strong alliance with the USA, as well as partnership based on close cooperation are my top priorities.”

Nawrocki has invoked the slogan “Poland First” along the campaign trail to express his concerns on the cost of living, migration, and security. “Let’s help others, but let’s take care of our own citizens first,” he posted on his social media in April.

Much like Trump, Nawrocki holds anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ and anti-immigration views. He has said that he would oppose the imposition of the EU’s climate (aimed at decarbonisation) and migration policies.

Euroscepticism and perceived EU overreach

Responding to a congratulatory message from European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, Nawrocki called for “respect for national sovereignty”.

Nawrocki’s victory has added to the list of Eurosceptic leaders, including Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. They view the EU’s policies as undermining their own government decisions. Nawrocki’s rise to power comes after the recent election of a liberal mayor as Romania’s president, a result pro-European leaders had hoped signalled the ebbing of the far-right tide in central Europe.

Nawrocki and the PiS diverge with the EU on key issues surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Given Poland’s own troubled history with Russia, Nawrocki has maintained his support for Ukraine but has opposed Kyiv’s entry into alliances such as the European Union (EU) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). He has also spoken of the public’s growing weariness with Ukrainian refugees who have added to Warsaw’s costs. Nawrocki has also criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for treating Poland “badly”, echoing Trump’s remarks.

Challenges for the Tusk government

Nawrocki’s Euroscepticism threatens to hinder Poland’s access to crucial EU funds. The Tusk government had pledged to reverse the controversial judicial regime from the PiS era, prompting the EU to unlock €137 billion in funding. A significant chunk of this has already been disbursed, but future cooperation may falter if Nawrocki blocks Tusk’s overhauling of judicial reforms.

While Nawrocki has limited executive powers, he holds a crucial right to veto legislation, spelling trouble for the Tusk government. The Tusk coalition itself has struggled to push through key electoral promises, including fewer restrictions on abortion and a civil union law for same-sex couples. Despite having a parliamentary majority, the coalition government does not have enough numbers to override the President’s veto, triggering fears of a political gridlock.

Aligning with Polish farmers, Nawrocki may block the Tusk government’s trade deal with South American nations over concerns about cheap agricultural imports. He has also pledged to hold a referendum on the European Green Deal, which faces strong opposition from farmers, coal workers, and the automotive industry.