President Emmanuel Macron has vowed to stay in office until the end of his term in 2027, defying calls for his resignation after the minority government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier collapsed in dramatic fashion in a historic vote in France’s National Assembly on Wednesday. Barnier, a veteran conservative who was appointed to the post by Macron only in September, has become the shortest-serving prime minister of the French Fifth Republic that began in 1958. The vote of no-confidence came amid disagreements among parties about government spending, but is linked to deeper issues in French politics that became evident following the snap election that Macron called in June. Here is what to know about the political crisis in the world’s seventh-largest economy, and what happens next. Vote of no-confidence The no-confidence vote was meant to convey parliament’s rejection of the government’s budget proposals. The draft aimed to cut government spending by measures including reining in pensions, and save around €60 billion through austerity measures. However, it was unpopular among parties on both the left and the right. Support from either of these two parliamentary groups was essential for the government to survive, since none of the three major political blocs — the left-wing, the right-wing, and Barnier’s centre-right — have a majority. Anticipating a crisis, Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows the prime minister, after deliberation by the council of ministers, to force a Bill through the National Assembly without a vote, according to a report in Le Monde. This meant the only way to prevent the Bill from passing was for the opposition parties to initiate a motion of no-confidence against the government. This is what they did, and succeeded. Problem of cohabitation Much of the current instability stems from Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap polls in June after right-wing parties won a significant number of votes in the EU Parliament elections that month. The President took a political gamble, believing that voters would be less inclined to support those parties in national polls. At that time, Macron’s centre-right Ensemble coalition was the largest alliance in parliament, but no group held a majority. But instead of galvanising in favour of Ensemble, voters favoured left-wing parties, which won the largest number of seats. Far-right parties, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, made gains at the cost of Macron’s coalition. In France’s semi-presidential, representative parliamentary democracy, the president is empowered to appoint the prime minister. After some delay, Macron cobbled together a coalition with Barnier’s conservative The Republicans party. This enraged the parties on the left, who believed they had the people’s mandate as the largest bloc. While there is no legal obligation on the president to appoint the leader of the largest party in parliament, leaders of parties with popular support are generally appointed to avoid public backlash. Barnier’s appointment led to a situation known as “cohabitation” in France — one in which the prime minister and the president belong to different parties. Periods of cohabitation are unusual, but not unheard of in France — and because the two leaders represent different political agendas and views, such periods have typically witnessed a tussle between parliament and the president in the passage of legislation. What comes next? Macron has said a new prime minister will be named in the coming days. A few names, mostly of centrist and centre-right leaders such as Sébastien Lecornu, François Bayrou, and Xavier Bertrand have been floated in the French media as possible candidates for the post. Until then, Barnier will head a caretaker government. A special law will be presented by mid-December to enable the state to levy taxes from next year, based on existing rules, and avoid a government shutdown. The new government will then prepare a budget law for 2025. Given the deep divisions in parliament, there is no guarantee the new PM will not face similar challenges. However, according to rules under the French Constitution, the next parliamentary elections cannot be held until July 2025. Marta Lorimer, a lecturer in politics at the UK’s Cardiff University, told France 24, “What is at stake is France’s financial stability… France is effectively going into the new year without a budget and no clear majority to pass one. Although it will be possible to extend the 2024 budget to avoid a government shutdown, this does mean that no new measures can be introduced, be it cuts or expenditures, and it is unclear how — or when — a new budget could be passed.” Concerns have been raised for France’s economy and high debt as well. Rating agency Moody’s said the government’s fall on Wednesday “reduces the likelihood of consolidating public finances”.
