Opinion Why Israel struck Iran, what it targeted

Explaining Israel’s “pre-emptive strikes”, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had “taken steps that it has never taken before… to weaponise enriched uranium,” and “if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time,” perhaps even “within a few months.”

Israel has always considered a nuclear Iran to be an existential threat; preventing Tehran from developing an atomic weapon has been Netanyahu’s signature platform for decades. Notably, this latest development comes while Tehran and Washington are negotiating a deal that would prevent Iran from developing atomic weapons in exchange for sanctions relief.

What did Israel target?

In its attack on Friday early morning, Israel claims to have deployed 200 aircraft — around a third of its active fleet — to hit more than 100 targets across Iran, including both strategic infrastructure and key personnel.

Natanz nuclear facility: This is Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility, where the country produces most of its nuclear fuel. Located in the central province of Isfahan, the Natanz facility is “the beating heart of the Iranian nuclear programme,” analysts say.

Reviewing satellite images taken before and after Friday’s attack, The New York Times reported Israeli airstrikes had caused severe damage to the facility, and that “several buildings and critical energy infrastructure either destroyed or heavily damaged”. It is still unclear whether these strikes damaged the all-important centrifuge halls, where uranium is enriched, that are buried deep under the Persian desert and protected by metres of reinforced concrete.

The IAEA on Friday afternoon said Israel had not yet struck Iran’s other major nuclear enrichment plant at Fordow in the northern province of Qom. This facility, unlike Natanz, is entirely underground, and much harder to hit, according to analysts. One expert told The NYT, “If you don’t get Fordow… you haven’t eliminated [Iran’s] ability to produce weapons-grade material.” On Friday evening, however, Iranian media reported explosions at Fordow.

Key personnel: Israeli strikes in Tehran took out Iran’s top military leadership. Among those killed were Maj Gen Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the armed forces, and Gen Hossein Salami, chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, arguably the most powerful institution in the country.

While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already announced replacements for the two top commanders, these deaths, along with those of more than a dozen others, leave a vacuum in Iran’s military leadership ahead of what may be a protracted regional conflict.

Israel also killed top nuclear scientists, including Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of Iran’s atomic agency, and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranji. This is not the first time Israel has gone after Iranian nuclear scientists. It is, however, the first time that it has done so through conventional military means and not covert operations.

Another significant casualty on Friday early morning, especially in the light of ongoing Iran-US nuclear talks, was Ali Shamkhani, one of Iran’s top politicians who was appointed by Khamenei to oversee negotiations with Washington. Shamkhani’s killing could severely jeopardise the possibility of a deal in the near future.

Military infrastructure: Israel also targeted a number of military sites across Iran. These include a nuclear research centre and two military bases in Tabriz in northern Iran; the missile development and production facilities in Bid Kaneh, on the southern edge of Tehran; a missile base in Kermanshah in central Iran; and multiple military bases in and around Tehran.

Note that this is not an exhaustive list, and Israel has maintained that its attack is “ongoing”. Friday evening saw a fresh wave of strikes on Tabriz and Tehran.

What now?

For Iran, this is possibly the gravest threat ever to the Islamic regime. In a letter to the UN Security Council, Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Israel had “now crossed every red line,” and that it would “deeply regret this reckless aggression”.

But as things stand, Israel has painted a rather sorry picture of Iran’s military strength, raising serious questions on both its defensive and retaliatory capabilities.

While Iran did send more than 100 drones towards Israel on Friday, there has been no reported casualty or damage thus far. Some analysts say Israeli strikes against Iran’s missile facilities may have seriously hurt its ability to strike back.

The biggest question now is how Tehran will strike back. Put simply, Iran is caught between a rock and a hard place. It can, as it has done in the past, activate its proxies and even launch more drone and missile attacks. But Israeli attacks over the years, and rather muted responses from Tehran, have repeatedly exposed Iran’s limitations in this regard.

While Israel claims that the Islamic regime in Iran poses an “existential threat” to the Jewish nation, the opposite might be more true. At the end of the day, Tel Aviv stands with steady support from Washington, which establishes a fundamental asymmetry between itself and Iran on the battlefield.

US President Donald Trump on Friday said Israel’s “next already planned attacks” could be “even more brutal,” and warned that Tehran “must make a deal, before there is nothing left.”