As the BJP on Tuesday won a historic third consecutive term in Haryana, data from Lok Sabha and Assembly polls showed that electoral contests in the state have become increasingly bipolar over the last decade. The data also reveal that the gap between the BJP and Congress, the top two parties in the state, has narrowed in the same period, as the regional parties have been increasingly squeezed out. In 2014, the BJP won seven out of Haryana’s 10 Lok Sabha seats en route to power at the Centre. While the Congress won just one seat, the O P Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) won two. The BJP led with a 34.8% vote share, followed by the INLD at 24.4% and the Congress at 23%. Months later, the BJP won the Haryana Assembly elections, getting a majority with 47 seats and a 33.3% vote share, ending the Congress’s 10-year rule in the state. The Congress won just 15 Assembly seats and a 20.7% vote share, while the INLD won 19 seats and a 24.2% vote share. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP improved its tally, winning all 10 seats. It won a whopping 58.2% of the vote; the Congress got only 28.5%. However, in the Assembly polls, which took place later that same year, the BJP fell to 40 seats, six short of majority. The party needed 10 MLAs of the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) to form the government. The Congress won 31 seats. Both the BJP and Congress increased their vote shares to 36.5% and 28.1% respectively. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP fell to just five Lok Sabha seats, the same as what the Congress won. The BJP secured a vote share of 46.11%, and the Congress 43.67%. On Tuesday, however, the BJP emerged with its highest-ever seat tally (48) and vote share (39.9%) in the state. The Congress recorded an improved vote share at 39.1%, but won only 37 seats. Over the course of the last three Assembly polls, the gap between the Congress and BJP in terms of vote share has shrunk considerably. From being separated by 12.6 percentage points in 2014, the gap is now just 0.8 percentage points. There is a similar trend in Lok Sabha polls as well. The gap between the two parties shrank from 29.7 percentage points in 2019 to just 2.44 percentage points in 2024. As the BJP-Congress contest has become tighter, the regional parties have lost out. The INLD fell from a 24.2% vote share in 2014 to 2.4% in 2019 before making a marginal recovery to 4.14% this year. The JJP, which made a splash in its poll debut, secured a respectable 14.8% vote share in 2019. But this year, it fell below even the INLD, its parent party, to a 0.9% vote share.
