RETURN OF LALUThe return of Lalu Prasad Yadav. He has stormed back in Bihar where in terms of vote-share he never really went away– he never slipped below 20 per cent of the vote share even in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections which was a scorcher for non-BJP parties. His RJD is set to be the single largest party in the state.
RESOURCES DON’T ALWAYS WIN VOTES
Money/resources don’t always win votes. The low opinion the BJP has of small parties or the opposition which ran much smaller campaigns now needs to be revised if the party takes the right message from Bihar. A little bit of humility would help the BJP as the ruling party in the Centre. The poor showing of the BJP is despite the mobilisation of enormous resources for this election: the PM’s 26 rallies, the presence of the entire cabinet at times in the state to campaign, large numbers of RSS cadres in the field. Some reports suggest Bihar was overflowing with Modi and his messages — 27,300 three-wheelers, 2,100 buses, 64,000 graffiti, 4,000 tea stalls, 18,000 car stickers and some 300 plus rallies of a sixth were addressed by Modi and party president Amit Shah. The defeat of such a monumental campaign should get all political parties to reconfigure their strategies for the future.
LOCAL, NOT NATIONAL
A big cow-belt state election got entangled with national issues. This elections was marked by the keen and direct involvement of the PM, his comrade and party president Amit Shah who threw his full weight behind the campaign – setting up headquarters in Patna — and the decision not to project an NDA CM candidate, together made this election almost into a referendum on PM Modi and the new BJP’s way of functioning. That has taken a knock and it remains to be seen what the BJP does in style and substance during the rest of its considerable tenure in Delhi.
LESSONS IN UNITY
The Opposition index of unity proved to be a sure winner. A well-oiled, `Little-Bihar’ campaign, under the radar, not loud, but effective, won the day and could prove to be the sanjeevani for a comatose central opposition seeks and needs.
DON’T WRITE OFF THE CONGRESS
The Congress has a better strike rate than the BJP – as far as trends go. In terms of seats the Congress is still a bit player but the strength the Congress could derive from this in a state where it had become almost irrelevant should worry the BJP which has been banking on a Congress-mukt Bharat for a free-run at the all-India level.
The Importance of communal harmony
Neighbouring UP, proved to be a tinder-box, but in Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s control over the administration, the absence of rioting or near-riot scenarios has helped the Mahagatbandhan. Lalu Prasad’s image as a formidable proponent of communal peace and amity bolstered this as a ‘peace’ Gatbandhan. The fight of MIM, outside this alliance also helped as it became difficult to target the Mahagatbandhan as a ‘Muslim’ appeaser. MIM failed to either polarise Muslims or Hindus, in fact it was tagged and damaged as a BJP-sponsored idea.
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