As Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President Donald Trump at the White House early on Friday (February 14) India time, a narrow focus on tariffs and immigration may obscure the broader transformations that the American president is initiating, and at a furious pace. Locating the PM’s conversation with Trump in the context of a shifting global landscape is crucial not only for bilateral ties with the United States but also for India’s evolving role in an increasingly turbulent international order. Ahead of his meeting with Trump, scheduled for 2.30 am IST, the Prime Minister will meet with the President’s close aide and Special Government Employee Elon Musk, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Indian American businessman and politician Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump’s call with Putin: A potential watershed in international relations Prime Minister Modi arrives at the White House at a pivotal moment, when Trump is reshaping great power relations. Of course, with Trump, one sweeping statement always runs the risk of being brushed aside by the next, and the walk-back is as predictable as the push forward. But if Trump does walk the talk — invoking World War II with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the war in Ukraine — this restructuring can potentially be as significant as the Yalta summit held 80 years ago. That’s where US President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin established a framework for the post-World War II global order. In his Wednesday phone call with Putin, Trump has effectively ended over a decade of treating Russia as a pariah by the West. In his social media post, Trump noted that he and Putin “reflected on the Great History of our Nations” and highlighted their successful collaboration during World War II, emphasising the need for renewed cooperation for global benefit. Trump stated that Putin shares his “common sense” approach to the urgency of concluding the war in Ukraine and announced the immediate commencement of ceasefire talks. He also mentioned plans for a face-to-face meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia soon. What about Europe, the subject of Trump-Putin talks? Much like in February 1945, the Europeans are not at the table. Europe is reeling from the implications of Trump’s Ukraine policy outlined on February 12 by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The US rejects the idea of Ukraine’s NATO membership, and believes that recovery of Kyiv's lost territories is unrealistic. Hegseth insisted that Europe must shoulder the responsibility for securing Ukraine’s future, and ruled out US or NATO troops for peacekeeping after any settlement with Russia. Trump is urging his European allies to “grow up” and take greater responsibility for their own defence. This is not the first instance of Washington and Moscow seeking mutual understanding in recent years. President Joe Biden met President Putin in Geneva in June 2021, but those talks faltered due to Putin's extensive demands, including a rollback of NATO expansion since 1997. Putin judged Biden as too weak, which led him to invade Ukraine. Currently, it remains unclear what Putin's terms for peace are. However, it is reasonable to assume that Moscow is in a weaker position today than in 2021, following three years of conflict, potentially making it more receptive to a settlement. If circumstances align favourably — a significant "if" — Trump may travel to Moscow to celebrate the 80th anniversary of Russia’s victory day in May, basking in the joint achievement of restoring peace to Europe. For Putin, a “New Yalta” symbolises the US recognition of Russia as a great power and its role in shaping the international system. Trump has done just that by acknowledging Russia’s contributions during World War II. Putin’s war in Ukraine appears less about territorial expansion and more about asserting influence in establishing a new security order in Europe that favours Moscow over the post-Soviet arrangements of 1991. What could be the implications for Asia and for India? The implications of a potential Trump-Putin deal for Asia remain uncertain. How might this burgeoning bromance affect Moscow's ties with Beijing? Is Trump shifting his focus from Europe to address the challenge posed by China? Alternatively, will he extend his peace strategy to Taiwan, seeking a potential agreement with Beijing? Will Xi Jinping's presence at Moscow's May celebrations herald a new era of great power bonhomie? Can Europe and Asia accept new spheres of influence carved out by the great powers? Modi will have the opportunity to gauge Trump’s overarching strategy during their meeting. Unlike in the mid-20th century, when India had little influence over the global order despite contributing over two million soldiers to the Second World War, New Delhi is now better positioned to safeguard its interests. However, achieving tangible outcomes will require agile diplomacy. Modi’s discussions with Trump are likely to extend beyond geopolitics to encompass geo-economics. For India, the stakes involve more than haggling about tariffs; it’s about finding common ground with the US on restructuring a global economic system that currently favours a select few major exporters, particularly China. Both the US and India face massive trade deficits with China. Trump's trade advisers are calling for a new global economic regime led by democratic nations to facilitate “balanced trade”. Modi has every reason to explore this concept with Trump. (C Raja Mohan is a visiting research professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore)
