Within days of the elimination of the first caliph of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in a US raid in Syria in October 2019, the group named Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurashi its new caliph. On February 3, 2022, US forces claimed the elimination of al-Qurashi in a similar raid in Syria. Last week, confirming the death of al-Qurashi, ISIS named one Abu al-Hasan al-Hashemi al-Qurashi as its third Caliph. Although details of his identity were not revealed, media reports suggest he is older brother of al-Baghdadi, and a key member of the shura or consultative assembly. While the February 3 raid would have provided rich information to further disrupt ISIS, the trajectory of the group since the loss of the so-called caliphate and its first two caliphs, suggests that ISIS core based in Iraq and Syria continues to pose formidable risks to the region and the world at large. 🗞️ Subscribe Now: Get Express Premium to access the best Election reporting and analysis 🗞️ Defeat of first caliphate In December 2011, the US withdrew its troops from Iraq, claiming that Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), led by Al-Baghdadi, had been decimated. By then, AQI's Syrian branch, Al Nusrah Front (ANF), led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, had already sent scores of cadres to Syria and grabbed territory. By April 2013, the AQI had morphed into ISIS — and on June 29, 2014, it declared a caliphate across large swathes of Iraq and Syria. However, Julani declared that ANF would remain a branch of al-Qaeda, and later renamed it Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which still controls northwestern Syria and some other parts of the country. As the caliphate posed a global challenge, a US-led coalition launched Operation Inherent Resolve in October 2014, and announced the “decimation” of ISIS on March 23, 2019, after capturing Baghouz in northeastern Syria. Russia and Iran have supported the Bashar al-Assad regime in combating ISIS in other parts of Syria. Cadres, funds survived However, even post caliphate, the ideology, finances and over 20,000 ISIS cadre were believed to have survived. Most cadres were Iraqis and Syrians, who seemed to have melted into the populations of Iraq and Syria as sleeper cells. Thousands of foreign fighters and families were arrested and are still being held in areas controlled by the US-backed Kurd-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria. Thousands of foreign fighters who moved out of the caliphate and are yet to be fully accounted for. These fighters were the poster boys of the caliphate - while the Iraqi and Syrian ‘sons of soil’ were, and still are, the backbone of ISIS, who are fast rebuilding a rural insurgency in Iraq and Syria. Despite the loss of two caliphs, ISIS has continued to show the ability to mount external attacks as far as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka, and inspire frequent attacks/plots, especially in Europe. It is reported that ISIS still holds tens of millions of dollars, and has regular sources of revenue. The ISIS provinces beyond Iraq and Syria appear to be independent local groups, which are using ISIS platforms and its brand value to recruit locally or regionally. The ISIS propaganda machine has utilised opportunistic claims to keep its flag flying. Foreign fighters driven by ideological motivations may move among these provinces. What future may hold Interestingly, the locations of both US raids on the ISIS caliphs lay close to the Turkish border, in northwestern Syria under the control of the HTS. On January 26, 2022, about 200 ISIS fighters attacked the Al Sina prison in Hasaka in northeastern Syria and freed thousands of its cadres. It took the US-backed SDF 10 days to end the fierce battle in and around the prison, pointing to the strength of the ISIS ecosystem along the Syria-Turkey border. In recent years, the fight against ISIS has weakened because of reduction of US troops in support of the SDF, which is also having to fight Turkish forces, and the dialling down of US combat operations in Iraq. The Ukraine crisis is likely to break the coordination the US had with Russia against ISIS in Syria. On the other hand, the ISIS core looks energised. The new caliph, who is believed to have been a close confidant of al-Baghdadi, has been moving across Iraq, Syria, and Turkey for the group's activities. It is likely that the ISIS deliberately chose a Turkmen as its second caliph, while the shura and al-Baghdadi’s confidants may have been running the group away from an ‘active chase’. It is possible that the third caliph may unleash new communication and operational strategies that are well-adjusted to new geopolitical realities. The impact would be felt across the world through a few, but regular external attacks, inspiration to lone wolf jihadis, and ISIS platforms carrying opportunistic claims by self-styled ISIS branches pledging allegiance while pursuing their own local agendas. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is one such branch which has, until 2020, recruited foreign fighters from the region and beyond, and used them largely in Afghanistan. More such branches are likely to emerge or be re-energised, and pose fresh threats to South Asia and beyond. Newsletter | Click to get the day's best explainers in your inbox
