As Covid positivity rate falls, hope rises of third wave decline

“The highest number of cases was reported on January 21 during the current surge when 3 lakh 47 thousand cases were reported. This is a little less than the 4 lakh 14 thousand cases that were reported on May 7 last year. The daily cases have reduced from 3 lakh 47 thousand to 1 lakh 72 k cases in the last 24 hours. A substantial decrease has been noted in the active cases over the last 12 days. Along with this, the positivity rate has also reduced from 20.75 per cent on January 24 to 10.99 per cent in the last 24 hours, which is approximately half,” said Joint Secretary (Health) Lav Agarwal said during a weekly briefing.

The official highlighted that there were eight states with over 50,000 active cases; 12 states where there were 10,000-50,000 active cases; and 16 states where there were less than 10,000 cases. Kerala is the only state where the active cases are increasing, he said.

Both daily cases and positivity rate are rising in Kerala and Mizoram. Kerala’s positivity rate has increased from 13.3 per cent one month ago to 47 per cent this week. For Mizoram, it has increased from 17 per cent to 34.1 per cent, said Agarwal.

The government also said the districts having less than five percent Covid positivity rate can move in the direction of reopening schools but it is up to the state governments to take a call in this regard.

“There are 268 districts where the positivity is below 5% and clearly these districts can now move in the direction of non covid care and also in the direction of other economic activities, as well as school opening. The declining trend of pandemic allows us to think about those options,” said NITI Aayog member Dr VK Paul.

“As far as school reopening is concerned. In 11 states, schools are fully open, in 16 states and union territories they are partially open — mostly these are the higher classes (9, 10, 11, and 12) in a staggered way — and in nine states, schools still remain closed. In all the states, the teaching and non-teaching staff vaccination status is around 95% on an average, some states have also completed 100%. All these measures are being taken and the ministry has been encouraging the states to follow the SoPs that we have prepared in consultation with them,and also to take forward the issue of vaccination, and alternative measures so that continued learning is carried on,” said L. Sweety Changsan, joint secretary, ministry of education.

During the briefing, ICMR chief Dr Balaram Bhargava presented data from 37 hospitals in the National Clinical Registry which showed that the in-hospital mortality — deaths among hospitalised Covid-19 patients — was 10.2 per cent among vaccinated individuals and 21.8 per cent among unvaccinated individuals.

The study, which has been submitted for publication, shows that 91 per cent of vaccinated persons who died had comorbidities, while 83 per cent of unvaccinated persons who died had these.

The requirement for oxygen fell to 36.1 per cent among vaccinated people as compared to 45.5 per cent among the unvaccinated. “The requirement for mechanical ventilation was also lower — 5% vs 11% in the fully vaccinated. This is just emphasising that vaccination helps,” said Bhargava.