A Wet June: All-India month-wise distribution of monsoon rainfall

The hope this time is that there will be no repeat of 2002 and 2004, where the monsoon flattered to deceive.

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Just for comparison, rainfall in June last year, at 95.2 mm, was 41.8% below normal.

June has turned out to be a good opening month for the south-west monsoon. India received 189.5 mm of area-weighted rainfall or 15.8 % more than the ‘normal’ long-period average (LPA) of 163.6 mm for the month.

Just for comparison, rainfall in June last year, at 95.2 mm, was 41.8% below normal. 2014 itself ended up being a drought year, with the four-month monsoon season recording an overall 11.9% rain deficit.

But a great start is no guarantee against drought, as June contributes only 18.4% of the LPA rainfall of 886.9 mm for the entire monsoon season. The bulk of monsoon precipitation happens in July (288.9 mm LPA) and August (261 mm LPA).

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In 2002, rainfall was 9.4 % surplus in June, but the season still registered a cumulative 19.2 % deficit. 2004 was similarly a drought year, despite June rainfall being only marginally (0.8 %) below the LPA. As opposed to this, there were years when the monsoon was normal — 2006, 2010 and 2012 — despite a weak start in June.

The hope this time is that there will be no repeat of 2002 and 2004, where the monsoon flattered to deceive.

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