The Indian subcontinent is all set to experience another year of ‘below normal to normal’ rainfall, according to a forum of global weather experts affiliated to the World Meteorological Organisation. The consensus statement issued by South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has said evolution of an El Nino event during summer would adversely hit the monsoon rainfall. “Major agricultural states like Punjab, Maharashtra, the south Indian states and UP are all predicted to receive below normal rainfall. Only portions of Jammu and Kashmir, Orissa, West Bengal and some of the northeastern states are likely to have normal rainfall,” said Dr D S Pai, senior scientist with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), while releasing the consensus forecast in Pune on Wednesday. This monsoon, the country is not likely to receive above normal rainfall in any region. According to the set IMD parameters, below normal rainfall translates into 90-95 per cent of the long period average (LPA) rainfall received in the region, while normal rainfall results in 96-104 per cent of the LPA rainfall. For 2014, the statement said till early March the El Nino Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean Dipole was “on the borderline of weak to cool neutral”. However, subsequent warming trends have been noticed over the sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which signals active El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
