Good news is on the way. India is likely to experience a normal south-west monsoon this year, if not excess rainfall again. The waters of the Pacific Ocean are not expected to warm up to the extent of causing a rise of the El Nino phenomenon, suggest overseas forecast models. The El Nino, which is warming of the Pacific waters, had been one of the main reasons for the failure of monsoons in India in the past. The worst drought of the century experienced in the country in 2002 was due to the rise of the El Nino phenomenon. Comparatively, the opposite phenomenon, La Nina, caused by cooling of Pacific waters, has always resulted in good rains. Last year, the country experienced an average rainfall of 102 per cent, an outcome of the La Nina effect. The US-based International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) has summarised the forecasts of a dozen dynamical models and eight statistical models and has come to the conclusion that ‘‘near-neutral conditions’’ will prevail in the Pacific Ocean in the first half of 2004. In 2003, the IRI had accurately predicted a good monsoon. According to official sources, IRI has made a similar forecast for this monsoon. The official forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD), is also expected to come out with the preliminary forecast by mid-April. The country enjoyed good rains in 2003 when the La Nina factor was predominant. However, from November 2003 onwards, the gradual rise of El Nino resulted in a poor North-East monsoon. The Pacific Ocean is divided into four regions. According to IMD, temperature variations in two regions namely Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 have a bearing on the Indian monsoon. The IRI summary of the forecasts indicates near-neutral conditions in the entire region.
