30-year march

Thirty years ago, the “little man from Sichuan”, Deng Xiaoping, laid the Cultural Revolution to rest and embarked on the “reform and opening up” policy. The five-foot tall Long Marcher had not only rehabilitated himself but also seized control of the Communist Party. His vision set China on a miraculous economic course that would pull the largest number of people out of poverty in the shortest period ever in human history — a policy shift that, as per World Bank estimates, shot the average income up from $293 in 1985 to $2,025 in 2006. Millions of Chinese, as a result, moved where they chose to, wore and ate what they desired and could afford. And they came to enjoy the luxury of choosing careers. The economy grew at an average of 9.8 per cent ever since. In his keynote address on the 30th anniversary, President Hu Jintao praised Deng’s reforms, which revitalised the country at a “critical moment”.

2009 marks a number of anniversaries, including that of the 60th year of the foundation of the People’s Republic. But the global slowdown is already pulling the fastest-growing big economy closer to its core. China’s exports are 2 per cent lower than they were in November, 2007; and imports are down by 18 per cent. GDP growth is likely to be around 7.5 per cent next year, which is good enough but falls short of encouraging the Party. Factory workers losing their jobs are adding to the ranks of protesters who have become more vocal and visible of late.

China is arguably the greatest success story of the world economy. But Deng was firm about the Party’s monopoly in politics; he oversaw the Tiananmen massacre in 1989. Deng’s vision of elections of national leaders around 2050 has now faded. The operative word in Hu Jintao’s day too remains “stability”. China will perhaps emerge stronger than Western economies after the current crisis. But it may need a new and different push if that “stability” is to last through this “critical moment”.