8 days to go, neither side has enough for a clear win

Despite coming together as an alliance to contest the Assembly elections, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party are expected to wi...

Despite coming together as an alliance to contest the Assembly elections, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party are expected to win just about 132 seats, 7 seats less than what they won when they contested separately in 1999.

The only consolation for the alliance is the likelihood of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance losing 30 seats from its 1999 tally. With neither alliance likely to win a majority, the field is open for Independents.

These are the results of the second opinion poll commissioned by The Indian Express, its sister publication Loksatta and New Delhi Television (NDTV). MODE, a leading market research agency, conducted fieldwork for the polls to gauge the voting intentions of the Maharashtra electorate as well to seek their views on a range of subjects and personalities.

Story continues below this ad

The fieldwork was conducted between September 24 and 30. The sample size was 30,364, probably the largest ever for a Vidhan Sabha election. And as many as 100 out of the 288 seats were covered.

But some words of caution. The poll was conducted before the candidates were announced and well before campaigning began. Also, all polls are subject to sampling error. The sampling error in this poll does not exceed 3%.

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena and the Congress-NCP were separated by just a couple of seats and less than 1% of the votes.

This time around, the Congress-NCP alliance is expected to be the largest single bloc but in real terms, this is a considerable setback for the alliance.

In 1999, the partners had fought separately and yet obtained 137 seats. This time, they are fighting together but they are likely to win about the same number of seats. In 1999, their combined votes exceeded 50%; this time, they are likely to fall below 45% and are likely to win just over 130 seats, a fall even from their recent Lok Sabha performance.

Story continues below this ad

The biggest hit on the Congress-NCP side is likely to be in Western Maharashtra where there is widespread rebellion in the ranks of the alliance.

While the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance’s share of votes is expected to be just over 40% (from around 33% in 1999 and 43% in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections) its seat tally is likely to fall sharply and in its happy hunting ground of Mumbai, its performance is expected to be worse than that in the recent Lok Sabha elections.

In the 1995 Vidhan Sabha elections in Maharashtra, Independents won 45 seats and around 25% of the votes—the highest in the history of the state.

While things may not be as bad in 2004, the Independent+Other lobby will have a formidable presence this time as well.