A point of no return

Though the PPP emerged as the single largest party in the House with 233 seats, it still fell 8 seats short of the magic figure. The Democrat Party ended up with 165 seats. The remaining seats were won by smaller political parties like the Chart Thai (37 seats), Puea Pandin (25 seats), the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana (9 seats), Matchima Thipataya (7 seats) and Pracharaj (4 seats).

In a hung parliament, the smaller parties are likely to play a crucial role in forming the government. While both the PPP and the Democrats are trying to woo the smaller parties, doing so may be tougher for the Democrats. The PPP may find it easy to get the support of at least the 8 more members required to cross the figure of 241. In all likelihood, the PPP will get the support of the Chart Thai party with 37 seats in the house, because most of the members of the Chart Thai party are those who had been together in the now banned Thaksin’s Thai Rat Thai (TRT) party. Since many of them have worked together in the TRT during the Thaksin era, it may not be difficult for leaders of these two parties to share power in the next government.

The victory of the PPP can also be seen as a rejection of the September 2006 coup and an expression of their dissatisfaction with economic development in the 15 months of military rule. The results confirm the common sense of PPP being more popular among rural voters, mainly the poor, while the Democrat Party is more popular among urban voters. The Democrats swept the city of Bangkok, mainly comprising middle class voters, where the party won 27 of 36 constituencies.

The PPP is also more popular in the north and north east, while Democrats are more popular in the southern provinces. The PPP swept the polls in the upper half of Thailand, the north and the north east and also parts of the central provinces. The success of the PPP indicates the enormous support which ex-Prime Minster Thaksin still enjoys among the rural voters in these provinces. While the new constitution that was approved by the referendum this September had been successful in banning Thaksin from Thai politics, it seems it has failed to root out the nostalgia for the Thaksin era, especially among the poor.

Whatever be the final outcome, it is clear that in the first battle between the power of the people and the might of the state in Thailand, the people have won. The message from the people of Thailand is loud and clear: they want democracy and not military rule. Those holding power at present can undoubtedly read this message. Hopefully, they will hand over power to the elected people’s representatives and would not try to nullify the whole electoral process by stoking a controversy on ‘advance voting’, for instance, about which an appeal is pending with the judiciary.

What role will the junta play if the PPP forms the government? Will Thaksin return to Thailand? As of now, there are only questions, no answers.

The writer, a fellow at CSDS, was in Thailand during the elections as an international observer. Views are his own