A visit that bridges a Gulf

The other graph that has been steadily rising is of Indian workers in the kingdom — from 2,50,000 in 1982 to 1.5 million in 2005 (Pakistan has only 4,00,000 workers). Remittances from Saudi Arabia alone are in excess of four billion dollars ($4 bn).Total remittances from the Gulf are $8 billion.

These equations never translated into geo-strategic ties. Partly, because Riyadh (to some extent New Delhi, too) had boxed itself into a limited diplomatic space. Saudi Arabia has been anxious ever since an undeniable polarity was introduced in the Islamic world with the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Riyadh and Tehran became the two poles.

But the kingdom has been traumatised since 9/11, particularly since most of the hijackers who flew into the twin-towers were of Saudi origin. The king who visits New Delhi is no longer several notches above all else in the Middle East on account of its wealth and proximity to Washington. The post 9/11 phase has been a humbling experience for the kingdom, what with a rash of terrorist attacks coupled with mounting western pressure on it to reform — come out of its medieval, obscurantist shell.

Tentative moves towards democracy in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrein have yielded no joy. Local bodies elections have brought Islamists on top, accentuating the nervousness of the rulers and the West. The unspeakable chaos in Iraq makes matters worse. Against this backdrop, India stands out as a model of stability. In a world being chopped up into denominations, we also stand out as a tolerant society. Babri Masjid, Gujarat were effectively mediated by the democratic process. A country which was mortgaging its gold in 1990, is today one of the world’s fastest growing economies — a fact the entire Gulf region has been watching with wonder and admiration. Flowing from these factors is New Delhi’s ability to chart out an independent foreign policy despite lobbies intent on lurching this way or that.

For instance I can see elements in the foreign policy establishment wringing their hands. They will see king Abdullah’s elevation as the chief guest on Republic Day as a negative message to Tehran. They would pause and reflect if they had access to the transcripts of President Ahmedinejad’s visit to Mecca two weeks ago for the OIC summit. The hospitality accorded to the Iranian leader by the Saudis was on an unprecedented scale.

Indian policy makers know this. Witness the successful meeting with Pakistani oil ministry officials earlier this month. Another meeting with the Iranian Deputy Petroleum Minister Nejad Hussainian is due in New Delhi in the coming days. The project report New Delhi had Ernest and Young prepare on the gas pipeline has been discussed in the three capitals involved.

Meanwhile sensitive talks on the Washington-New Delhi nuclear equation have been on in the US. The September 24, IAEA vote in Vienna on Iran’s nuclear intentions was a hiccup. Otherwise New Delhi’s relations with Iran appear to be on track.

Zalmay Khalizad, as the US ambassador to Kabul, secured Iranian co-operation on Afghanistan. This background was pertinent in his being appointed as Ambassador to the Green Zone in Baghdad. His back channel contacts with Iranians invited positive comments from the media in the Gulf. But to balance the complicated US-Iran equation came a detailed statement from Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, casting Iran in the usual lurid colours. So long as Iraq remains unstable, the US needs Iranian co-operation — even it it has to duck Ahmedinejad’s intemperate statements. But it must keep up pressure on Tehran until the Islamic Republic abandons its rejectionism on the Israeli-Palestinian track.

Such and other complexities — the Indo-Pak track for instance — will obviously be discussed with King Abdullah. It is in good time that the king has decided to break his duck with India at the highest political level.