The results of the presidential election do not augur well for the NDA. Even as the Third Front starts to find its feet, the Second Front is collapsing. The BJP had boasted that the presidential contest would expose major dissensions within the UPA ranks. But, as it turned out, the major desertions were not from the ranks of the UPA but from those of the Opposition.The Third Front’s decision to abstain rather than support the NDA candidate was a blow to the BJP, which has struggled for a decade to rid itself of the ‘untouchability’ stigma. Shekhawat made a point of projecting himself as an independent candidate, not a BJP man; but this did little to rally the non-UPA parties round him. In the bargain he ended up annoying the RSS.At this juncture, the NDA’s prospects for the 2009 general election do not look very bright. The UNPA’s dog-in-the-manger decision that it was better to abstain rather than support Shekhawat is indicative of the growing divide between the BJP and its former allies. This time the BJP could not even hold the NDA ranks together. The mercurial Mamata Bannerjee’s decision that her party would abstain is a signal that she could jump ship any moment. Another very short-term BJP partner is the Janata Dal(S) in Karnataka, which is in no mood to honour the agreement to hand over the reins of power to the BJP at half-time. The unkindest cut was the Shiv Sena’s. Although ideologically on the same side of the fence as the BJP, it bolted in order to support a fellow Marathi. Only the Akali Dal and the Janata Dal(U) remained officially with the isolated BJP although unofficially Jayalalithaa and a section of Chautala’s party seemed to have come around.The defeat is all the more galling, considering that Bhairon Singh Shekhawat towered over Pratibha Patil, both in terms of popularity and character. The poll, however, was not a test of the good will that Shekhawat enjoys but of the BJP’s own standing. It is the BJP’s negative image with the minorities which has kept away many of its one-time allies. Naidu holds the BJP responsible for his defeat in AP in 2004. He feels he lost his sizeable Muslim vote bank and has concluded that the disadvantages of a tie-up with the BJP outweigh the advantages. Mulayam Singh, who projects himself as the messiah of the minorities, also cannot be seen to be supping with the BJP.Others in the Third Front were alienated from the BJP because of the party’s own shortsightedness. The shrillness of the campaign against Jayalalithaa over the Shankaracharya’s arrest was for the benefit of the RSS but it alienated a potential ally. Losing Haryana’s Om Prakash Chautala as an ally in the last parliamentary election was the BJP leadership’s own miscalculation. Chautala was humiliated time and again when he offered a hand of friendship. Similarly, the loss of the AGP as an ally stemmed from the BJP’s over-confidence in its last days in power.It took years for Advani, as party president, to allay the suspicions of regional parties and put together a winning rainbow coalition. The party’s victories of 1998 and 1999 reflected the triumph of a well-thought-out strategy. There is no such thing as untouchability in politics, Advani is fond of saying. Political alliances are cobbled together on commonality of objectives and use of different parties to each other rather than belief in the same ideology.It did not occur to the BJP leadership that its allies would rediscover the party’s communal colour when it was no longer in power. As the adage goes, there are many friends in victory but in defeat you stand alone. The Sena ‘tiger’ would not have roared so loudly about the Marathi Manoos if it did not believe the BJP was too weak to retaliate. As the BJP loses its winning streak its untouchability correspondingly increases. Significantly the two NDA allies that stood by the BJP — the Akalis and the JD(U) — are bonded together with the BJP in the governments of their respective states. The blame for the BJP’s present humiliation lies squarely with the party’s faction-ridden leadership. In the past a Vajpayee or an Advani could allay suspicions about the BJP’s bonafides and its relationship with the RSS. Their voices carried weight, since they were seen as the undisputed spokespersons for their party. Today there is no one in the party who can carry such conviction. The RSS has taken full advantage of a splintered BJP leadership to impose its own bigoted agenda, which is only pushing the BJP’s former friends further away from it.
