BJP turns to Advani, architect of its rise, to check the big fall

‘‘It was Atalji’s proposal that Advaniji be made the party president, it has happened with his approval,’’ Sushma Swaraj told The Indian Express this evening. ‘‘Everyone sat together, Atalji, Jaswant Singhji, Advaniji, and it was felt a senior leader should take over if Venkaiah Naidu was to leave. Later all of us endorsed it.’’

The change of guard wasn’t overnight. It had been under consideration since the party was defeated in the Lok Sabha elections.

For the record, though, outgoing president M. Venkaiah Naidu, in an emotionally wrought ‘‘farewell speech’’ before the media, cited his wife’s ill-health as the primary reason behind his decision to quit. But the BJP’s unexpected defeat in the Maharashtra elections was clearly the trigger.

The decision to appoint a new president comes at a time when the BJP is slowly coming to terms with its defeat in the Lok Sabha polls and is looking for a leader who can stem the multiple ills that affect the party: demoralised cadres, organisational disarray, bitter infighting between the “second rung” leaders and ideological drift.

The party and the Sangh Parivar as a whole have plumped for old warhorse Advani—his first two terms lasted from 1986 to 1991 and then another two between 1993 and 1998—for two key reasons, sources said.

First, despite his own initial reluctance to accept the “crown of thorns”, he was the only leader acceptable to the warring factions within the party. Almost all the second-rung leaders, Pramod Mahajan, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Narendra Modi, Uma Bharati or Rajnath Singh, have been grooomed under Advani’s organisational leadership, and would do so again without a murmur. Even Murli Manohar Joshi went along with the plan when Venkaiah Naidu spoke to him in Allahabad.

The second, and more important, reason is that the BJP—a long spell in the opposition staring it in the face—is hoping that Advani can work the old magic once again. After all, things were much worse in 1986 when Advani first took over as president of a party that had just two seats in Parliament.

His first two terms as president saw the transformation of Advani from a sober ideologue to a rabble-rousing mass leader whose 1990 rathyatra in support of the Ramjanmabhoomi movement changed the political contours of India.

Advani’s success in spreading Hindutva as a political ideology is well known. What is less known is that in his second stint as president (1993-1998) Advani was instrumental in changing the course of the BJP’s trajectory.

After the 1996 experience, when the Vajpayee government lasted only 13 days in power, Advani realised that the BJP would have to shed some of its “distinctiveness” to attract allies and that it could come to power only by being part of a coalition.

That strategy—in which Vajpayee’s moderate image was crucial—also worked, enabling the BJP to last six years in power.

In many ways, however, the BJP is at a far more critical juncture today. In 1986, the party had nothing to lose and everything to gain by trying out new tactics. With the Congress system slowly cracking up, the BJP’s strident Hindutva also attracted new votaries among both the poor and the middle class.

In 1998, with the Congress seemingly in terminal decline, it became that much easier for the BJP to assume the mantle of the main pan-Indian party that could attract a range of regional allies.

Things are different today. Congress is showing signs of revival, Hindutva has lost much of its earlier appeal, and the BJP’s attempts to appropriate the “development” plank has not paid much dividends.

The future isn’t exactly rosy for the party. It’s unlikely to make significant gains in elections due in either 2005 (Haryana, Bihar and Jharkhand) or those slated for 2006 (Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal). So even if there is a turnaround in the party’s fortunes, it is not going to be visible for sometime to come. The UP elections, where the BJP could fight back, are due only in early 2007.

For Advani, therefore, the challenge today is chart out a new course for the party and inject a new spirit of hope among its demoralised cadres—a difficult task since the next round of elections in Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana (followed by West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in 2006) offer little hope for success.

The RSS is keen that Advani take back the party to its Hindutva roots. Sangh spokesman Ram Madhav told The Indian Express: ‘‘Just as the BJP has expectations that Advani will lead the party’s revival, the Sangh also has expectations that he would take the party to its original identity as a party with a difference—in terms of both ideology and idealism.’’

While that is a tall order, partymen right now are hoping that Advani can at least stem the sense of drift that has overtaken them. Advani’s immediate task, a BJP leader said, is to quell infighting within the party, reinforce organisational discipline and vitality, and anoint one among the “second rung” leaders as his successor sometime in early 2007.

Pramod Mahajan put it pithily when he told The Indian Express: ‘‘When in doubt, you play your trump card. And Advani is the BJP’s trump card today.’’ Arun Jaitley put it somewhat differently: ‘‘A larger umbrella figure taking over the party when it is going to face challenges is inherently in its interest.’’