BJP’s second coming rests on President

NEW DELHI, Nov 20: The Bharatiya Janata Party's gameplan to form a government in the event of the Congress withdrawing support to the Unite...

NEW DELHI, Nov 20: The Bharatiya Janata Party’s gameplan to form a government in the event of the Congress withdrawing support to the United Front hinges on the President. Political realignments — a euphemism for splits and switching loyalties — are expected only if President K R Narayanan invites BJP leader Atal Behari Vajpayee to form a government.

A movement towards the BJP is likely only then, as in the case of Uttar Pradesh when legislators defected and split from their parent parties only after the Governor asked Kalyan Singh to prove his majority.

The President can explore other options — like inviting the BJP to form a government — only if Prime Minister I K Gujral does not recommend dissolution of the Lok Sabha while still enjoying a majority (before the Congress officially withdraws support).

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Indications today were that the UF is in favour of Gujral being voted out on the floor of the House as it wants the Congress to shoulder the blame for bringing on another general election. The UF would also like to have a debate on the floor of the House for other reasons — showing up the hypocrisy of the Congress, absolving itself of the blame for Rajiv Gandhi’s death and scoring points that would boost its election prospects.

However, the President might not invite the BJP to form a government unless he is confident that the party has a reasonable chance of getting a majority. Narayanan could refer to the fact that the BJP was unable to prove its majority last May and insist on the party furnishing a list of supporting MPs before he gives it a second opportunity to form a government.

Vajpayee’s unscheduled meeting with Narayanan yesterday evening was reportedly to urge him to explore all options before dissolving the Lok Sabha. BJP leader Jaswant Singh indirectly referred to this today: “The BJP expects that the President will uphold all norms and proprieties for which he is renowned.”

It is a chicken-and-egg situation — the BJP may not be able to get MPs from other parties over to its side unless the President asks it to form a government; and the President will not do so until he believes that the BJP is in a position to get a majority.

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The BJP needs at least 50 Congress MPs to switch sides for its gameplan to work. The Congress has 144 MPs and to avoid disqualification under the Anti-Defection Law, 46 (one-third) would have to form a separate group. Negotiations are reported to be underway with Congressmen but the MPs are said to be waiting until they are sure that the BJP will stake a claim.

Similarly, although regional parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK), Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) are believed to be in regular touch with BJP leaders and reportedly they are likely to cast their lot with the BJP only when the situation is clearer.