The impending war against Iraq naturally raises the issue of the safety and security of the 3.8 million Indian population in the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. The government’s decision to withdraw the people from our mission in Baghdad would naturally increase the concerns of the expatriate Indians and their friends, relatives and families in India. Official briefings about the arrangements for the evacuation of people from the region have naturally added to these concerns. But it is important to make an objective assessment of the risks involved so that everyone is clear of the possible implications of the war against Iraq.To start with the US war against Iraq — if and when it happens — would be fought inside Iraqi territory. Unlike 1991, Iraq has virtually no missile capability to hit anything outside its borders. Its air force has been decimated by the last war, and the sanctions regime since then. It might be able to get some aircraft airborne, but they would be quickly shot down by the overwhelming US air power. The only area where people — locals or Indian expatriates — are likely to be affected by any violence is by acts of terrorism. These may well be initiated by sources other than Iraqi, possibly by the same organisation(s) that have prosecuted a terror war against India for two decades, with the same goals. People, including the security agencies of Arab states, would have to be more vigilant. But the risks are no more than at home in India.Elementary prudence demands that, in spite of the absence of any direct threat to the security and safety of Indians in Gulf region, we are prepared for even the unpredictable contingencies. It is in this context that prior arrangements for such eventualities must be seen. We have the notable experience of having undertaken the biggest strategic airlift since the famous Berlin Airlift. We evacuated 117,000 people by air, besides the tens of thousands by sea in 1990-91. At that time, Kuwait and Iraq were the theatre of war, where over 300,000 Indians had become hostage to circumstances. Today we have less than 100 Indians in Iraq, and while 300,000 people are in Kuwait, they are not under any risk of the war this time.
