Bypoll blows for two Cong CMs

Ernakulam puts the party in a dilemma—whether to act against a defiant Karunakaran and face a split or suffer the humiliation in silence— and Solapur gives the Congress endless nightmares about the Assembly elections next year.

The BJP-Shiv Sena candidate, Pratasinh Mohite-Patil, won the Solapur seat by defeating Anandrao Devkate of the Congress by 1,22,817 votes. Sebastian Paul of the Left Democratic Front defeated Congress’s M O John by 22,134 votes in Ernakulam, a traditional Congress seat. The margin in Kerala may be less but the defeat is bitter with Karunakaran openly thumbing his nose not just at his arch rival A K Antony but the central leadership as well.

While his supporters held victory processions in the constituency, sometimes merging with those of the Left alliance, Karunakaran made no effort to hide his glee. ‘‘Let me salute all those who have made this possible,’’ Karunakaran said. ‘‘Normally the defeat of a Congress candidate will hurt me. But this time the Chief Minister said John was only his candidate. I think this is a lesson for Antony. The entire responsibility of the defeat (of UDF candidate) rests with the Chief Minister.’’

Karunakaran told The Indian Express: ‘‘It is very unfortunate that Antony’s man has lost.’’ Asked for whom it is ‘‘unfortunate,’’ he said: ‘‘I can tell you tomorrow.’’ His son and the KPCC president K. Muraleedharan also held Antony ‘‘solely responsible’’ for the defeat.

‘‘My calculations have gone wrong. I had expected John to win. I accept the verdict of the people,’’ Antony told reporters. Indirectly admitting that wounded Muslim sentiments would have played a role, Antony justified his post-Marad action. ‘‘Marad was most unfortunate. People who blame me today should understand that not even one drop of blood was shed in the name of Marad anywhere in Kerala. There was no backlash. Time will prove that I had done everything possible to contain the crisis,’’ he said. The AICC general secretary in charge of Kerala, Ahmed Patel, said sabotage by ‘‘a section of the partymen’’ had worked against the party candidate. Patel was, however, evasive about the action that the party might take against the dissidents, stressing that it would wait for senior leader L P Shahi’s report.

Shocked by the damage, the Congress has sought reports from both the chief ministers and Pradesh Congress Committees to explain the defeat. Patel stressed the Congress was most worried about how to ‘‘make sure there is no more damage, keeping in view the Lok Sabha elections.’’

Why the party may be reluctant to act against Karunakaran is the fear of a split and the birth of another NCP. Karunakaran, with this election, has just shown what he is capable of doing to the Congress’s electoral prospects.

The NCP impact was there to see in Solapur. The result is a hard blow for Shinde who had repeatedly said that it was as if he himself was contesting the election, not Deokate, who had vacated his Assembly seat for the chief minister. Shinde camped in Solapur for more than five days to campaign. The Nationalist Congress Party had supported Deokate but equations changed when the BJP cleverly fielded Pratapsinh, younger brother of NCP leader, sugar baron and PWD Minister Vijaysinh Mohite Patil. As a result, the election turned into an almost direct fight between Shinde and Vijaysinh. Vijaysinh, who wanted his younger brother to win, reportedly told Sharad Pawar that he would quit the NCP if Pawar campaigned in Solapur and that he would take 14 MLAs with him. So the leadership of the party stayed away.

Also a rebellion in the party against Deokate hit his chances. More than 21 corporators had threatened to resign if the high command imposed Deokate on them. ‘‘We lost in both places because of local causes and it is not reflection of the mood of the people,’’ Ahmed Patel said.