Candidates divide, add & subtract to rule

Traditionally a "right" constituency, Thane has been a BJP bastion from the Jan Sangh days. Except for a break in 1984, when Shantaram Gholap of theCongress rode the sympathy wave following former prime minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination, Thane has remained with the BJP till the last elections.

The party’s ally at the state level, the Shiv Sena, meanwhile, has been steadily making inroads into the constituency. With new shakhas sprouting all over the district, the tiger has left its pug marks a long way establishing its hold over all the four civic bodies (NMMC, TMC, KDMC, UMC and the Bhiwandi-Nizampura Municipal Council). And if that makes the BJP-Sena alliance appear like a formidable combination to you, then the calculator wielders would like to remind you that there are other factors that can tilt the balance in Samajwadi Party’s favour. One of these factors is called Pappu Kalani. In Ulhasnagar, where there are 1,75,000 Sindhi voters, a lot still depends on whose side the TADA detenue is on. SP’s Kenia is also pinning her hopes on support from Congress loyalists.

Then there is senior Shiv Sena leader Ganesh Naik, the Thaneguardian minister. Naik has some old scores to settle with Paranjpe, and what better time than elections. His nephew Sharad Naik has accepted the nomination of Akhil Bharatiya Sena from Thane and is sure to eat into Paranjape’s votes. But, Paranjpe too is not alone. He is backed by the wily Thane district Sena chief, Anand Dighe, a bete-noire of Naik.The mood in the Samajwadi Party camp, however, is sombre. The party candidate Chandrika Kenia is not a known name in the district. In fact, she’s not known even to the party workers. The Congress support has not been able to liven up her campaign. "Where can the excitement come from, when you know that you don’t stand a chance?" asked a Congress worker. The SP-Congress alliance is yet to recover from the shock of Rajaram Salwi’s defection.So, has Kenia given up? No, not as long as there are calculators. She has figured out her priorities and her campaign managers are busy formulating ways to woo the sizable Gujarati-Jain voters, besides the six lakh North Indianand Muslim voters. They hope that the Agris and Kunbhis too would vote for their party.

Paranjpe’s managers too are making similar calculations. Salvi, himself an Agri, has a strong base in the rural pockets of the constituency and has added considerable weight to Paranjpe’s campaign. In the 1996 elections, Paranjpe had won 52 per cent votes, while the Congress candidate secured 30 per cent. The Samajwadi Party had secured only 12 per cent votes then. Realising the dangers of getting into a triangular contest once again, Congress arrived at an understanding with the Samajwadi Party and decided not to field anyone against Salwi. "Salwi’s defection to the BJP has upset their calculations. Kenia is just filling in the vacancy and she knows that," said a worker. But, you never know…