Chagai to Chennai to Lahore: Nuclear neighbours discover each other

New Delhi, Feb 18: Jordan's former Crown Prince Hassan, a delightful after-dinner speaker, has a favourite story.During the Gulf War, he ...

New Delhi, Feb 18: Jordan’s former Crown Prince Hassan, a delightful after-dinner speaker, has a favourite story.

During the Gulf War, he asked Turkish strongman Turgut Ozal why his country had not joined the US-led coalition against Saddam Hussein.

Ozal said, history tells us, every confrontation ends up on the negotiating table. “So,” said Ozal,“I’d rather be a guest at the dinner than an item on the menu.”

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That, an item on the menu, is just how both India and Pakistan have felt in the nine months since Pokharan and Chagai. They had set out to be nuclear weapon powers, thus enhancing their international status and seeking to be accepted as great powers. But the tests also exposed the vulnerability rooted in the fragile economics and fractious politics.

The tests did make international impact. But they also gave the developed world the moral justification to use instruments like sanctions against our nuclear programmes, something they had been itching to do for years.It is just as well now thatthe leaders on both sides have realised — and acknowledged — the prudence in being the guests on the negotiating table rather than being items on the menu. Both are fed up of being pushed around by the Americans and their allies, of answering embarrassing questions, being asked to define their idea of minimum deterrence and generally having to convince the western world that even poor nations such as ours can institute command and control systems to responsibly control nuclear arsenals.

It is often said that the spontaneous Chennai cheering of the victorious Pakistani team was the defining moment in India-Pakistan relationship. If that is the truth, how come, in nearby, and equally if not more genteel, Bangalore, the crowd was so hostile to the Pakistanis in the World Cup semi-final three years ago?

Could it be that Chennai, January 28 was just a public expression for a mood that has been building, in both countries, since the nuclear tests? So that, the nuclear tests, was the original defining moment.These nine post-nuclear months have also seen our minds evolve, along the same wavelength, for several reasons. Not all of these are negative. For example:

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In India, we have surprised ourselves with the way we have braved the sanctions. The economy has suffered. But a near-six per cent growth even in a year such as this has given us confidence. This now enables us to shed some of our insecurities vis-a-vis a smaller, weaker neighbour.

Whatever the reason, the ISI’s subversive activities have declined significantly over these nine months. It is possibly because of great work by our spooks. But if the ISI has stayed out of the headlines, we can’t be blamed for feeling better.

Even Kashmir has moved a long way towards normalcy. The army casualties there last year were less than Delhi’s monthly road accident toll. This figure is almost a third of the average of the preceding years. Now this may not be a so much due to Pakistani benevolence. But the improvement has resulted in a more secure,less hostile popular mindset towards Pakistan. So the crowd in Chennai has got over the Roja syndrome.

The American hectoring on the nuclear issue has made us realise that we are better off sorting out these issues with the most likely antagonist in the neighbourhood than give an exaggerated, Yeti-sized toehold to the US.The Pakistanis have similarly learnt some new lessons. This came through clearly on my recent visit there, to interview Nawaz Sharif, in discussions with old friends, or to draw from the post-Pokharan lexicon, key interlocutors. More significantly:

The nuclear Pakistanis feel a lot more secure. Rightly or wrongly, the elite as well as the common people in Pakistan have believed for years that India’s long-term agenda is to dismember their country politically, territorially and ideologically. The nukes provide a new insurance.

The Pakistanis now acknowledge the greater resilience of the Indian state and its economy. Their own economic indicators have gone completelyhaywire. Inflation runs at 12 per cent. Forex reserves are down to nothing. Stock markets have suffered twice as badly as ours. The rupee (stronger than our’s pre-Pokharan) has slipped to 52 to a dollar. A default is around the corner. They watch the strength of our economy with envy.

The nuclear tests have made Pakistan realise that in the post-Cold War world, the US could follow a doctrine of equidistance and even tilt a bit towards the stronger power in south Asia. This is a major shift from the days when the US was an ally.

The Taliban misadventure, rising sectarian violence and the US attacks on Osama bin Laden have all weakened the right-wing stream in the Pakistani establishment.

The net result is a growing belief that a nuclear Pakistan has to live and do business with a strong, united and nuclear India by itself. Therefore it needs to find a modus vivendi. Bilaterally. This is why the atmospherics, the build-up are so positive this time, as the two neighbours discover their realstrengths and weaknesses in a tough, new nuclear world.