Climate report says India vulnerable, but is Delhi listening?

Just before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report was being hammered out in Paris, the Chinese government experts were in full force at the meeting while New Delhi was conspicuous by its absence.

Just before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was being hammered out in Paris, the Chinese government experts were in full force at the meeting while New Delhi was conspicuous by its absence. This report is the final word on the science of climate change and some of the findings show that India may need to engage with the issue of climate change more closely than it has done in the past.

With the first instalment of the fourth assessment report, IPCC scientists seem to have put an end to most of the question marks over the science of climate change. They say that it is “very likely” that global warming is chiefly driven by the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases caused by human activity, and that dangerous levels of warming and sea rise are on the way.

“This report shows climate change is real and India is vulnerable. The country has to strengthen its knowledge on the implications of these findings and change its attitude towards the issue,” said R K Pachauri, chairman of IPCC, speaking to The Indian Express from Paris after the release of the report.

Story continues below this ad

The Indian government is not worried as yet. “It is too premature to talk of policy implications based on this report,” said Prodipto Ghosh, secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests. He said the report has to go through several steps of scientific peer review before being translated into policy.

The world is looking closely at India and China where demand for energy is growing each year. Though India has entered the top 10 emitters of carbon dioxide, the per capita emissions are still one-sixth of the global average. This is something India has been using to ward off commitments towards cutting down on its emissions.

The emissions story is now one part of the big picture of climate change. There are other findings that the policy-makers cannot ignore while embarking on a 9 per cent growth. Most of these are related to agriculture and water. “Indian government needs to mainstream concerns of climate change into existing policies,” said Joyashree Roy, who is member of IPCC working group. According to her, the country can take a host of smaller but vital measures while continuing to negotiate with the world on technological and financial help to cut down on emissions.

• The report says that for the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 per decade is projected. The temperature rise over the century could be between 2.5 to 4.5 degree centigrade. This has tremendous implications on the agriculture of the country. A slight shift in temperature in the wheat bowl could result in massive loss of yield. “This means scientists have to develop varieties that are drought and flood resistant,” explained Roy.

Story continues below this ad

• It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. This implies a state-of-the-art weather forecasting system and a working disaster management plan.

• Decreases in precipitation is likely in most subtropical land regions by as much as 20 per cent. This means investing in more efficient water technologies.

• Sea level rise would continue to rise even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised. This not only means loss of agricultural land from our 7,500 km of coast line, but also dealing with refugees from islands that disappear with sea level rise.

Though the Ministry of Environment and Forest has a working group on climate change, its work has been low key. India has concentrated its energies in telling the world that its priorities are different. This December, when Nick Stern presented a summary of his review showing the economic impact of climate change, India responded by presenting a paper by Indian economists to show that there is no need for the country to agree to any binding emissions and the focus must clearly be on achieving domestic goals like eradicating poverty.

Story continues below this ad

It told Stern that unless there is adequate compensation, India will lose significantly in terms of GDP if it takes on binding targets. According to the paper, contrary to many predictions, the emission intensity of the Indian economy is seen to reduce after a point while the per capita emission show a rising trend.

This report not only reinforces Stern’s warning but also makes it more real. This report is a product of 2,500 scientists, 130 nations and six years of work, which translates into a certainty of over 90 per cent, up from the 66 to 90 per cent chance the panel reported in its last major climate change assessment in 2001.