Come April, UPA set to be minority in Rajya Sabha

That also perhaps explains the magnanimity shown by Congress President Sonia Gandhi in receiving BSP supremo Mayawati at 10, Janpath last week, notwithstanding the fact that the latter has been constantly ranting against the Congress and is set to damage the party’s prospects in Assembly elections this year.

The BSP’s support could be crucial for the UPA’s legislation. More so, 10 Rajya Sabha Members from UP will also face elections by November.

As it is, the UPA, the Left, Independent supporters and Nominated members with leanings for the ruling combine together account for 118 in a 245-member House. These include NCP-backed Independents PC Alexander and Rahul Bajaj — although they were supported by the BJP too — and Congress-backed Independents Arjun Sengupta and Vijay Mallya. Five members were nominated by the UPA government.

With the Samajwadi Party’s 16 members supporting the government till mid-February 2007, the UPA government had a comfortable majority of 134 in the Rajya Sabha. After the SP’s withdrawal, the BSP, with seven members in the Rajya Sabha — including one BSP-backed Independent — gave a majority to the government, albeit with a reduced margin.

After 59 members retire in April, election to fill the vacancies is set to bring the ruling combine’s tally down, going by its strength in different state assemblies. The vacancies will be as follows: Six in Andhra Pradesh, three in Assam, five in Bihar (excluding the seat that fell vacant due to the death of RJD MP Motiur Rehman last December), two in Chhattisgarh, four in Gujarat, two in Haryana, one in Himachal Pradesh, two in Jharkhand, four in Karnataka, three in Madhya Pradesh, seven in Maharashtra, one in Manipur, one in Meghalaya, four in Orissa, three in Rajasthan, six in Tamil Nadu and five in West Bengal.

Going by the present strength of UPA and allies in Assemblies and not factoring coss-voting, the ruling combine looks set to lose 12 members: RJD to lose three in Bihar and Congress two in Chhattisgarh, four in Karnataka (no election to fill vacancies because of dissolved House in the state), two in Madhya Pradesh, and one in Rajasthan.

On the other hand, the ruling combine could gain only eight members: DMK to gain two in Tamil Nadu, JMM/RJD one in Jharkhand, and Congress three in AP, one in Haryana, and one in Orissa.

Thus, the ruling combine is likely to lose four seats in the Rajya Sabha in April. That will bring down the total strength of the ruling combine in Rajya Sabha from 118 to 114. Including the BSP’s seven members, the total strength comes to 120 only, short of a majority.

Chief Whip of the Congress in Rajya Sabha V Narayansami said he was yet to look at the numbers. “We will let you know when we make the calculations,” he said. Parliamentary Affairs Minister P R Dasmunshi was not available for comment.

Congress sources claimed that even the NDA was in a minority in the Rajya Sabha. But what it meant to the NDA was evident when the then Opposition Congress had brought a censure motion in May 2002 on Gujarat developments. While the NDA defeated the motion in the Lok Sabha, it had to support it in the Rajya Sabha to avoid any embarrassment.

Ruling party members also questioned the calculations about the results of the election to fill up 59 vacancies. “Politics is not just about numbers. There is a lot more things involved. You will see when results come,” said a senior Congress leader.