It came as no surprise in Delhi’s political circles that the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh had split. Some of the MLAs who left had let it be known a month ago, in private, that eight of them were planning to quit. More may go in the days to come. Even as the breakaway group was being recognised by the UP Speaker, the AICC general secretary in-charge of UP was telling a TV channel that he was trying to ascertain whether or not the MLAs had defected! Sonia Gandhi should have sacked Motilal Vora that very day. It would have been a salutary signal to partymen at every level. If she has given her general secretaries a free hand, which appears to be her style, and this has been true in UP, Gujarat and Maharashtra, surely there must be some accountability. Vora should have resigned on his own. He obviously thought his work was over once he had herded the 23 Congress MLAs into 10 Janpath and got them to reassure ‘Madam’ that they were not quitting. The Congress Legislature Party had been a sitting duck after Mayawati lost her majority, and though the BJP rebels returned with their tails between their legs, it was clear that ‘Behenji’ would strike soon to ensure her survival. After the UP split, the stakes have gone up for Sonia Gandhi personally. If the Congress loses the bypolls in Haidergarh — it has fielded a candidate who polled only 5000 votes last time — and in Gaurigunj which is located in the Amethi parliamentary constituency, and the BJP manages to retain Himachal Pradesh, it would weaken her authority. UP calls for hard decisions. The Congress has problems enough in such a polarised polity, with the state divided along caste or religious lines. Sonia Gandhi must put in place a credible leadership and start de novo. She has nothing to lose: as it is, the party is being decimated. The present leadership has nothing to show for itself. Pramod Tewari has been CLP leader for ten long years, or more with two splits in the party to show for it. Tewari’s proximity to Mayawati is an open secret. To keep channels of communication open with leaders of other parties in a coalition era is desirable provided it strengthens the party. Party people openly talk about how Mayawati “managed” the Congress to abstain in the MLC election two months ago which led to the defeat of the Opposition candidate. It is said Mayawati had put two of her ministers, Lalji Tandon and Harishankar Tewari, on the job. And the less said about UPCC chief Arun Kumar Munna, the better. The BJP has worked out its road map to power. It is talking about winning 300 seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. You may disagree with its ideology, but it has evolved a strategy. It used its defeat in UP and Uttaranchal as a wakeup call. It has reinducted Arun Jaitley in the Union cabinet to work on the temple issue. While the likes of Vinay Katiyar are busy highlighting Ambedkar’s sayings about Muslims to try and generate a pro-Hindutva sentiment, the BJP’s top leadership is clear that the alliance with Mayawati must be kept going till the Lok Sabha elections. The Mayawati card is a potent weapon in the BJP’s hands. Mayawati’s decision to field candidates in Himachal Pradesh — and later in the year, possibly in Delhi — will cut into the Congress votes and help the BJP. It is not surprising that L.K. Advani almost shouted at Rajnath Singh and others who went to him to complain against Mayawati. “Don’t you want the BJP to win in the next elections?” he is believed to have asked. Indications are that the party may even divest Rajnath Singh of the charge of UP. The BJP is demonstrating a will to power. This does not seem to be the case with the Congress, which has become a party of flabby leaders, five star culture, individual agendas. Many BJP leaders suffer from this syndrome but they also exhibit a determination to deliver. For the Congressmen, when things go wrong, Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origins and relative inexperience become an alibi for their failure to organise people around issues. They are now clamouring for Priyanka to come to their rescue. Her entry may help, but she has to be ready for it. Basically, the party cannot revive without cadres knuckling down to the basic task of political mobilisation. There is still no dearth of ideas and experience in the country’s grand old party. It just needs to be tapped and Sonia Gandhi needs to throw her net wide enough. Rome was not built overnight. But the first step has to be taken and that is to instal a credible leadership in UP.
