The immediate euphoria of Shimla is over, but it had undoubtedly enthused party leaders in the Congress, as they knuckled down to strategise for the 2004 elections.Shimla was different from the other brainstorming sessions the party has held. This time, leaders spoke freely, which has not been the party’s tradition. There were heated arguments, with points and counterpoints being raised without fear. Even discontent was allowed freeplay. Some, for instance, charged that the party was taking the minorities for granted, others said that it was not doing enough for the dalits. Even the chief ministers sat through the discussions like the others. Sonia Gandhi took particular interest in the discussion on social empowerment, taking notes. Perhaps it was the unprecedented openness that had encouraged this involvement.Certain definitive themes emerged as a consequence. In Shimla, the Congress acknowledged that the days of one-party rule were over — a historic turnaround for a party that has ruled independent India for 45 out of 55 years. It now announced that it was open to alliances at the Centre with like-minded parties but with a proviso: The Congress will lead any coalition and Sonia Gandhi will be its leader. Having made this clear, it does not matter whether it fashions an NDA type of pre-poll alliance with other groups or forges tie-ups with parties, statewise, in bilateral arrangements: Mulayam in UP, Laloo in Bihar, Pawar in Maharashtra. Earlier there was a fear that the regional satraps may manouevre the situation in such a way that she would be forced to nominate someone else as leader.There was also a subtle shift in the party’s position on Hindutva. By attacking “fundamentalism” of all kinds — it opted for this word in place of “communalism”, which has been used in the past to connote Hindu communalism — the party decided to equate majority communalism with minority communalism. Sonia did not use the word Hindutva even once in her speech.The party, thus, moved from a Nehruvian line on secularism — that majority communalism was more dangerous than minority communalism because it could lead to fascism — to a Gandhian position. It decided not to be defensive about going to temples, mosques and gurdwaras, which was part of the party’s tolerant tradition and not part of a “Soft Hindutva” package, which is the way the BJP would like to paint it. This is going to present the Congress with a golden opportunity to reposition itself with the Hindus, particularly when the prime minister’s middle-of-the-road image may come in for attack with a strident VHP.Now comes the task of concretising the decisions. The party is open to an alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP and with Laloo Yadav in Bihar. But this may only help it maintain its present strength. Neither Mulayam nor Laloo are likely to give the party more seats than it won last time. In Tamil Nadu also the signals are not very positive, although the Congress plans to explore the possibility of a DMK tie-up. Mamata Banerjee is unlikely to come on board, knowing that the Congress will have a post-poll arrangement with the Left parties.In the long term, the Congress has to revive its presence in the big states to be a player. But, in the short run, it should concentrate on a different set of four states, which could catapult it to power. These are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. These four states account for 137 seats and the Congress had won only 23 seats from these states in 1999. There is, therefore, enormous potential for growth here and the party has a good chance of mopping up an additional 50 seats.It can do well in Orissa, if it manages to unite all its factions. In Gujarat, it has to get out of the defensive mode that Narendra Modi has put it in, while in Andhra Pradesh it has to contend with a politically savvy Chandrababu Naidu, despite the fact that he has been in power for ten years. Besides, the Congress will have to clarify its position on the demand for a separate Telengana state — a region that could account for 16 Lok Sabha seats — as the Telengana Rashtra Samiti movement has gained ground.The Congress-NCP combine can do well if they stick together and the NCP spokesperson has already softened on the issue of Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origins after Shimla. Maharashtra, however, is a tricky proposition for the Congress. Sharad Pawar will demand a 50:50 division of seats because he overtook the Congress in the zilla parishad elections. He can be expected to ensure that either he or his protege becomes the CM, if the combination wins, and later he may even try and break the Congress. But for the moment, the Congress has no option but to go for a pre-poll alliance with the NCP.This then is the political scenario confronting the Congress. If it wants to be successful, it must start building on its strengths.
