Cong’s Question No. 1: what will happen next year

There is a realisation that it’s back to the drawing board again to rethink, reassess and revise strategies that seemed to work till now but may not succeed in the post-Gujarat scenario. In this context, the loss of all three assembly by-elections in Rajasthan is probably a greater shock than the defeat in Gujarat because it underlines the party’s biggest anxiety — that in next year’s contest, it’s the Congress that has to devise ways of countering the anti-incumbency factor. Congress circles identified Rajasthan and Maharashtra, where the Congress-NCP alliance is on shaky ground, as its most vunerable areas. Although elections are not due in Maharashtra till 2004, Congress sources admitted that the coalition government could fall any time, particularly if the BJP-Shiv Sena combine decide to go for broke.

What’s worrying Congress is the fact that both states border Gujarat, have a Muslim population and could become Hindutva laboratories. VHP leader Praveen Togadia has already threatened to extend Gujarat experiment to Rajasthan, and Congress sources confessed in recent months there have been small communal incidents in the state which party leadership has not taken seriously till now. Perhaps one of the first issues the Congress will have to deal with in the new scenario is its antipathy to alliances and its reluctance to give space to other opposition parties. When the analysis is done for Gujarat, the party will be able to assess whether it was correct in refusing to tie up with the NCP, for instance. In Goa, where the BJP now rules in coalition, the NCP cost the Congress the vital seats it needed for a majority. Left sources stressed that Congress will have to get off its high horse and come to terms with the reality of coalition politics if it hopes to counter BJP in a comprehensive manner. The pressure for a united anti-BJP front will mount on Congress from the rest of Opposition in the coming months and the party will have to do some serious rethinking on its Panchmari line which has been following religiously till now.

Himachal Pradesh, which goes to polls in February, will be the first test of Congress party’s ability to take on a resurgent BJP. Complacent Congress calculations so far were that the party had sown up its victory because of strong resentment against Dhumal government and its success in winning back Hindu vote in northern region, starting with Punjab earlier this year and then Jammu in September.

Now, with indications that Narendra Modi, may become BJP’s mascot in HP, the party is worried. The only consolation is that HP has a mere half percent Muslims and is more likely to be influenced by trends in Jammu and Punjab than in Gujarat. Still, Congress leaders realise that the time for complacency is over because they clearly have a bigger battle on their hands than they had bargained for.