A mid-March opinion poll, jointly commissioned by The Indian Express and NDTV and conducted by A C Nielsen, has indicated that the Congress is headed for a disastrous show in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. The party and its partner Nationalist Congress Party, the poll shows, are also likely to lose a considerable chunk of their Maratha votebank in Maharashtra. The poll, conducted between March 8 and March 15, with a sample size of 45,578, spread over 207 of the 543 LS constituencies, suggests the BJP-led NDA will be back in power. The poll, with the largest ever sample for a published poll, also sees a distinct possibility that the Congress may slump below the 100 mark. The poll forecasts 287-307 seats for the BJP and allies, 143-163 for Congress and allies and 90-100 seats for others. The BJP alone is likely to get 190-200 seats while the Congress is likely to end up anywhere between 95- 105 seats. This is the first of a series of zonal analyses of the exclusive opinion poll. This part covers the western/central zone of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. Gujarat Notwithstanding the communal riots in Gujarat, the opinion poll respondents reported a fairly high ‘feel-good’ factor in Gujarat. Not only was ‘India Shining’ for these voters, they also rated Vajpayee and Advani higher than respondents in the other states—and their own CM, Narendra Modi, was rated high by the Gujaratis. A few weeks ago, L K Advani described the Gujarat riots as a ‘kalank’ and these views are shared by the Gujarat electorate with a vast majority agreeing that the riots were a matter of shame for the country. They also conceded that these riots did not do much for their business. Many political commentators describe Gujarat as the first truly BJP state and the BJP has done very well here through the ’90s. And this trend is expected to continue if the results of this opinion polls are any indication. An expected swing of 4 pc in favour of the BJP is likely to increase its tally to 24. Madhya Pradesh It’s all BJP on the Western front? Congress said the party did not believe in poll surveys as they destroyed the essence of democracy. ‘‘It is a mere illusion,’’ party spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi said. Describing the survey as ‘‘amusing’’, he said those who wished to capture Indian democracy and the over 50 crore electorate through samples of 40,000-odd voters ‘‘truly deserves a Nobel prize’’. BJP questioned the veracity of the survey which gave an insignificant number of seats to the AIADMK-BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu. ‘‘Unlike in the North, where even filing of nominations has begun, here the election trend has not settled. Some parties are yet to announce their candidates,’’ BJP leader S. Thirunavukkarasar said. — PTI The Congress and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party may have learnt an important lesson from their huge defeat in the last elections. In 1999, the two parties fought separately and the split in their votes allowed the BJP/Shiv Sena combination to win 28 of the 48 seats. Had they fought together, they would have won 15 more seats (the saffron combine 15 less). With the two Congress parties coming together, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine faces a united opposition which means they need an 8 pc swing in their favour just to get back to their 1999 level of 28 seats. The survey indicates that there are some indications that there may be a swing in favour of the BJP-Shiv Sena. For the first time, the Marathas appear to be moving away from the Congress with 55 pc voting for the BJP-Shiv Sena and only 39 pc for the Congress combine. The final impact of the local state factors— administration, Telgi scam etc— and the national impact of the Vajpayee versus Sonia campaign is a swing away from the Congress of around 8 pc and a swing towards the BJP-Shiv Sena of 7 pc. The survey suggests that the BJP-Shiv Sena will win 27 seats— one seat less than what they got in 1999 and the Congress NCP combine will win 20 seats, a gain of three seats. Rajasthan Rajasthan is the third state where the BJP scored a victory in the recent Assembly polls. Not only was it a victory, it was the first time that the BJP crossed the 100 mark in the 200-member Assembly. As in BJP-ruled MP, it is more the ‘national factors’ than the ‘state factors’ that will determine the way the electorate will cast its ballots. Unlike in the Vidhan Sabha, the BJP has tended to do well in the Lok Sabha in Rajasthan. Currently, the BJP holds 16 out of the 25 seats in the LS. If the results of the opinion poll are any guide, the BJP, with a 9 pc swing in its favour, is all set to increase its tally to 23.
