The Iraqi Pandora’s Box, well beyond the ongoing instability and low intensity conflict, seems about to open if not handled very carefully. The United States’s declared goal for the war to change the regime in Baghdad was to establish a democratic Iraq. Historians, of course, would argue that it is difficult to identify a significant period in the past when Iraq was ruled under the democratic principle. This is probably the reason why the US wants “indirect” elections, which would unquestionably leave an impression that the government through that process would be a managed democracy, not so different from Pakistan’s experiments with basic or guided democracy under Ayub Khan which kept the majority Bengali population of the country out of power.The highest Shia moderate religious leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani, who had not opposed the US war, and seeks a moderate Islamic democracy, has been clearly pressing for early direct elections so that a legitimate Iraqi sovereign government can start exercising sovereign responsibilities as early as possible. Implicit in this demand is the reminder that Shias constitute more than 62 per cent of the population of Iraq and would naturally have a larger share of Iraq’s future power structure. The demand for direct elections is now being backed by massive peaceful demonstrations by the Shias, somewhat in the mould of the Indian struggle for freedom and self-rule. But the June timetable set by the US would not allow enough time for such an exercise.Predictably, this is also leading to hardliners gaining ground in this process. At the same time, it is inevitable that the US presidential election would impinge on its Iraq policy. Experts, including the Iraqi ministry of planning, believe that the exercise could be done by September this year after electoral rolls have been prepared. The US has belatedly sought the help of the UN to return to Iraq. The secretary-general would like to base his decision on an evaluation by his experts and they are now being sent to Iraq. India, with its vast experience of direct elections, could be of great assistance to the international community and the Iraqis to work out a transparent, impartial and effective electoral system. But the problem is not simple. Democracy, in its true, sense would lead to majority rule and hence majority-minority equations and adjustments, inevitable in any democratic system, must be acceptable to all parties for it to work properly. In Iraq this is going to take time. But it is best done under UN auspices.
