Curtains for Clinton

It is virtually impossible for Clinton to overturn Obama’s current lead in popular vote and the delegate count in the few remaining primaries. Clinton had hoped that a fluent victory in Indiana and a close contest in North Carolina would reinforce her current argument that Obama is unelectable in the November general elections because he is unable to ‘close the sale’ with the all-important white working class vote.

Although Clinton won nearly 61 per cent of the white Democrats in North Carolina and nearly 65 per cent in Indiana, she could not generate the broader surge necessary to stop Obama. Nearly 90 per cent of the African American voters and a significant portion of the white middle classes stayed with Obama in North Carolina and Indiana.

In the last few weeks, Clinton seemed energised by a new sense of purposefulness and the visible capacity to connect with ordinary people. As the post-mortems might conclude, she found her voice a little too late.

Nuclear option

To be sure, Clinton has the so-called ‘nuclear option’. In other words, she can set up a nasty procedural fight before the delegates gather to crown the presidential nominee. The party’s committees on rules and credentials are scheduled to meet in the coming weeks and do offer a chance for the Clinton campaign to demand that the delegations from Michigan and Florida, which would reduce Obama’s lead, be seated at the convention. Clinton had won both these states, but the central leadership of the party had decreed that the two state units had violated the rules by holding early primaries and will be kept out of the convention.

The Democrats are very conscious of the fact that the November election is theirs to lose. Given the unpopularity of President George W. Bush and the perceptible decline of the Republican Party, the Democratic leadership has every reason to press Clinton to end her campaign at the earliest and stop bleeding the party from within.

Obama looks ahead

Meanwhile Obama is presenting himself as the inevitable nominee of the party and pre-empting many of the

Republican attacks during the fall campaign.

In his victory speech in North Carolina, Obama declared that “The question, then, is not what kind of campaign they’ll run, it’s what kind of a campaign we will run… I didn’t get into the race thinking that I could avoid this kind of politics, but I am running for president because this is the time to end it”.

Obama promised the Democrats that he will counter the Republican smear tactics by “telling the truth — forcefully, repeatedly, confidently — and by trusting that the American people will embrace the need for change”. He also confronted the Republican criticism of his call for an early withdrawal of troops from Iraq and for talks with Iran. “I trust the American people to recognise that it is not surrender to end the war in Iraq so that we can rebuild our military and go after al Qaeda’s leaders… That it’s not weakness, but wisdom to talk not just to our friends, but our enemies — like Roosevelt did, and Kennedy did, and Truman did”. As far as Obama is concerned the intra-party debate is over and it is time to challenge the Republicans.

The writer is professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore