Dare we hope once again?

Vajpayee’s Srinagar initiative had taken into account global and regional developments and the situation in the Kashmir valley. He sensed the mood of the people. Quarrels could no longer be sustained as part of a 60-year-old habit. They would not have popular sanction, in India or Pakistan.

Public opinion had to be gauged on another issue. India’s relations with the US have been upgraded over the past years. Indeed, almost the first country Washington turned to for peacekeeping partnership in Iraq was India. There were echoes of post-war Berlin when northern Iraq was earmarked as the ‘‘Indian sector’’. The matter was tossed up for democratic debate, in Parliament. Indian public opinion was negative on the issue. With national elections looming, it made practical sense to keep ears close to the ground.

In the urge to forge subcontinental harmony, how does one handle public opinion mobilised against cross-border terrorism? It was a situation fraught with irony. All countries were to be enlisted in the war against global terrorism (that the policy made the world more terror-prone is a subject to be discussed separately) but terrorism directed against India was exempt from public condemnation in Washington.

President Musharraf knows the US is in deep trouble in Iraq and in the Middle East in general. Washington must have a trophy in Afghanistan before US elections next year. In seeing the constitutional Loya Jirga through in December leading to elections, Musharraf’s help is important. This Islamabad knows. But is it not short-sighted to bank on US goodwill only for the duration of the Afghan complications? As South Asia expert Stephen Cohen stated: “The US-Pakistan relationship is something of a temporary liaison, in that we coerce Pakistan into cooperating with us in Afghanistan.”

A remarkable feature of the progress in subcontinental diplomacy since the Srinanger initiative has been the number of skeptics in the Indian establishment who are gradually falling in line.

It must be said to the credit of Islamabad that, without prejudice to its stand on Kashmir, it has generally been responsive to the popular mood in Pakistan by not standing in the way of people-to-people contacts. After all, a dozen-odd journalists have accompanied Sheikh Rashid, its information minister. This must clear the air. Saturation coverage given to the visit by 32 Indian parliamentarians, including Laloo Prasad Yadav, by Indian and Pakistani media changed the mood on the subcontinent.

The subsequent 12-point initiative announced by India evoked a measured response from Islamabad, one or two awkward innuendos notwithstanding. Mubashir Hasan walked across the Wagah border, making him the first to take advantage of this facility offered to those over 65 years of age on either side of the border.

The size of the two missions will now be increased to 55 from 47. Another 20 Pakistani children are to be treated in India, New Delhi has accepted Pakistani medical treatment for 40 Indian children. Of the 20 Pakistani children who had strayed into India, some have been identified by the Pakistan High Commission. Today, on Children’s Day, they will cross over.

A 70-member Pakistani delegation is here for the International Trade Fair. An under-19 cricket team has returned triumphant from Pakistan. A full fledged Indian cricket tour of Pakistan in March is being discussed. As preparation for SAARC, Pakistan’s health minister is in New Delhi; Communications Minister Arun Shourie is packing his bags for Islamabad.

On December 1 and 2, talks on flights and overflights will be held. It is unlikely that flights between the two countries will not be resumed. Otherwise, how will Vajpayee travel to Islamabad for the summit? I believe the Indian side will accept any reasonable formulation on overflights.

All of this is enormous gain since Vajpayee’s April offer. And so much would not have happened without Musharraf’s helping hand. Truly, the way is being paved for beneficial bilateralism including on the Kashmir issue.

It was always absurd for neighbours not to be on talking terms, particularly in a phase of globlisation. A Bermuda based company, Flag telecom, has been bought by Reliance. It has been a bandwidth provider for Pakistan.

Countless problems still remain. On balance, however, the glass appears more full than empty. But then, as Josh Malihabadi once said: I have been disappointed so many times that too much hope frightens me.