Denied access to lake, Govt clueless in crisis

A full one week after its formation, the Crisis Management Group today asked the Central Water Commission (CWC) to collate all available dat...

A full one week after its formation, the Crisis Management Group today asked the Central Water Commission (CWC) to collate all available data on the dimensions of the lake caused by the landslide on the Pareechu river. And prepare a more ‘‘definitive’’ estimate on when the walls may give way.

This was prompted by the fact that all existing estimates have been proven way off the mark. While the Sutlej valley remained safe from the impending flood for another day today—there was some overflow—it was clear that nobody really knew the actual threat, adding to the agonising wait for thousands in the area.

With the Indian team being denied permission to enter China, most of the data required is not available: the nature of the rocks, the exact height of the lake and the topography.

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Experts are miffed at the fact that despite repeated requests, the Chinese have refused permission. The Chinese have communicated to the Indians that they are undertaking ‘‘road and other construction’’ in the area. The Chinese have also informed that they ‘‘may have to breach’’ the lake wall as they fear that if left unattended, it could create problems.

The Indian side feels that the volume of water could also cause damage in Chinese territory.

Since permission for the Indian team is unlikely to come, CWC sources say they will give the Ministry of Home Affairs a list of data they need.

At present, they have data from the Geological Survey of India and the National Remote Sensing Agency—both inadequate to make precise calculations on when the breach would happen.

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There was a detailed assessment on August 6 by the CWC which hardly helped: The CWC said that once the lake reached a height of 25 m, it would give way and there would be a tidal wave at Sumdoh of 19 m, Khab 12 m and Jhakri 8 m.

Now, the lake is estimated to be 35 m tall and 1.1 km wide and extends for 1.9 km behind the debris wall.

On asking why they went wrong, they say that the figure of 25 m was a ‘‘general’’ one based on international experience. The Chinese figures were even more bizarre: Last Sunday, they said the lake would breach in 24 hours. In fact, the calculations they gave were way above what Indians had estimated. Since none of this happened, it is clear that the danger really needs to be re-assessed.

The Chinese team claims that they are still 500 m away from the actual lake. However, they have communicated that the ‘‘dam is intact but not stable’’. There is a five-metre gap in the front wall through which some water is draining.

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As a result of this, there has been a marginal increase of water at Sutlej at Khab where Indians are monitoring the situation. The Chinese have once again said that ‘‘the next 24 hours are crucial.’’