Don’t underestimate the nation-state

For a generation or more, it has been an article of faith, at least in Europe, that the nation state is in profound decline. The rise of glo...

For a generation or more, it has been an article of faith, at least in Europe, that the nation state is in profound decline. The rise of globalisation, growing economic interdependence, the spread of new international organisations and the power of multinationals, not to mention the European Union itself, suggested that the future lay in new forms of global and regional governance. This was a delusion. The opposite is happening. Nation states will be the decisive players in global affairs over the next few decades… Even if John Kerry is elected president, the US will not revert to its pre-9/11 behaviour. Kerry may emphasise the importance of allies, but the unilateralist instincts of the sole superpower will not be put back in the bottle.

The weakness of Europe as a global player is also a reminder of the efficacy of the nation state. Economically, the EU remains a formidable force, rivalling the American economy. As a political player, though, it pales into insignificance in comparison. Unable to act with any decision even in the Balkans, its impotence has been all too transparent over Iraq, where the EU has essentially been reduced to its component parts, most graphically illustrated by the divergent roles of Britain and France…

Even Iraq is a reminder of the importance of the nation state. Before the invasion, liberal imperialists liked to emphasise the limits of sovereignty, and to extol the virtues of imperial power acting to promote human rights and democracy, intervening in order to “civilise the uncivilised”. They have gone a little quiet recently…

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The arrival of China and India on the world scene will reinforce the importance of the nation state. They will dominate east Asia and south Asia respectively, which between them have well over half the world’s population. Any trend in those regions towards the pooling of sovereignty along the lines of the EU, as in the case of the Association of South-East Asian Nations, will be secondary rather than predominant tendencies. The same can be said globally. India and China are, and will be, very different kinds of nation states from those that we are familiar with in the west. Not only are they far more populous — a novelty in its own right — they are also products of very different histories, cultures and races…

The emergence of the US as a unilateral superpower was a rude reminder of where power is really located: indeed, it has sought to withdraw from, boycott or ignore the Kyoto treaty, the ICC and other bodies. The arrival of China as a superpower, and probably India a little further down the historical road, will only reinforce the underlying importance of the nation state. Nation states, not multilateral institutions, will be the decisive players of the 21st century.

Excerpted from an article by Martin Jacques in The Guardian on October 23