Dreams from the future

In addition the Obama candidacy has generated hugely increased turnouts in state caucuses and primary elections — more than double the turnout in the Republican contests — and engaged young Americans in politics to a degree not seen since the 1960s.

Obama’s appeal is also remarkably broad, and appears to be broadening. It is true that Obama’s viability as a national candidate has attracted huge African American support. But he has also won many states with very small African American populations such as Iowa and Maine. Only Latinos and older working class women have so far stuck with Hillary Clinton, though recent primary results have suggested he was making headway in those groups as well.

Of course this race could still go either way. Upcoming primaries in Ohio and Texas (on March 4) will be major tests of Obama’s ability to continue to undercut Clinton’s core support.

But given the speed and scope of the ‘Obama phenomenon’, we must still ask, what is going on here? Put aside the remarkable charisma and communication skills of the man, how do we understand the aspirations and energies he appears to be unleashing. Are we witnessing at least the beginning of one of those every fifty-year transformational moments in American political life?

First, in his powerful and insistent calls for change, Obama is tapping a broadly felt malaise with many aspects of the American scene today. This goes beyond disillusionment with the Bush administration’s performance on many fronts. It is reflected in the consistently very high percentage of Americans — about three quarters — who have been telling pollsters that the country is on the wrong track.

The American malaise is directed at what many believe are three troubling trends. First and most important is the growing insecurity or at least uncertainty that many Americans feel about their economic future in an increasingly competitive global economy. While many Americans have benefited from higher returns to education and technology in this competition, it is now widely accepted that real wages and incomes for the less well educated have stagnated, dimming prospects for the regeneration of middle class lifestyles for many. The rising costs of health care and energy, along with declining real estate values and anxiety about retirement security for many baby boomers, are adding to these pressures. Even if they are not so concerned about their own immediate livelihoods, a growing number of Americans no longer hold the cherished belief that their children will be better off.

A key part of Obama’s appeal lies then in his reclaiming of the optimism about the future that is so central to the American character. This goes beyond the emphasis on experience and policy that has been central to the Clinton campaign. It is about the possibility of change.

The second source of American malaise is frustration with the paralysis of our politics and governance by partisan and ideological differences. Thus for Obama the companion message to the possibility of change is the possibility of Americans coming together to make it happen. After years of intensely partisan battles in Washington, he rejects partisanship — “not blue states, not red states, just the United States” — as an obstacle to progress, and thus is attracting independents and even some Republicans to his side.

Obama’s effort to transcend the politics of narrow identity — of race, ethnicity, gender and religious affiliation — still runs against deep currents in American life, but is finding deep resonance among many, especially younger Americans who grew up in a much more diverse and integrated society than their parents.

The third focus of American disillusionment is the Bush administration’s uses of fear at home and unilateralism abroad that have brought America’s standing in the world to a new low without proving effective against the real threats that all Americans know are out there. Despite their well-known provincialism, Americans care about how they are viewed, for it reflects on the very basis of their national identity, their political values.

In saying that he will reject the politics of fear and talk even to our enemies, Barack Obama is simply appealing to Americans’ pragmatic side. They are not ideological multilateralists by any means but they understand that to address global threats such as terrorism, nonproliferation and climate change, we must work in tandem with other nations.

Of course all the candidates, especially on the Democratic side, are to varying degrees appealing to these same sources of anxiety and frustration among the voters. What is different about Obama is the authenticity of his appeal and the promise it holds for a different style of leadership based on bringing Americans together.

Which brings us to the newest and potentially most transformative aspect of the 2008 campaign — the much expanded involvement of young people in the process — largely around the Obama banner. They have been the vanguard of the Obama movement, across racial, political and class lines, and are clearly responding to his hopefulness and vision.

To anybody who came of political age in the 1960s, the enthusiasm of young Americans for Obama is strongly reminiscent of my generation’s enthusiasm for JFK. Of course we are still in the early stages of any lasting generational shift in American politics — and it is not clear whether the caution of the baby boomers will still prevail in this election. But it is worth recalling that when JFK was elected in 1960, ushering in that transformational decade, the oldest baby boomers were only 14. And in 2008, fully 50 per cent of Americans were born after 1969.

So what does the Obama phenomenon mean for America in the world? Only the broadest outlines of possible change are discernible. An America probably more inwardly focused though not isolationist. An America more inclined to work in partnership with other nations though still ready to act alone when its vital interests are threatened.

The wheel of American politics is turning. America is moving.

The writer is president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He earlier headed the Asia Society in New York mbouton@thechicagocouncil.org